MLB Picks

Cleveland is in a strong spot to respond tonight with Parker Messick on the mound. He’s been dominant early, posting a 1.76 ERA across five starts, all of which have resulted in Guardians wins, and he’s backed by a bullpen that’s been excellent with a 1.86 ERA over the past week. Meanwhile, Steven Matz has struggled to find consistency and now faces a Cleveland lineup hitting lefties well while limiting strikeouts. The Guardians lost yesterday, but are 10-2 this season in games following a loss. 

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 21.9-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for pitchers.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Oswald Peraza in today's game.. This season, there has been a decline in Oswald Peraza's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.17 ft/sec last year to 27.93 ft/sec currently.. Based on Statcast data, Oswald Peraza is in the 17th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .246.

Let’s take a bigger swing with the projected cleanup hitter for the Minnesota Twins in a strong matchup. The Covers projections like the Over in this game, and suggest the Minnesota offense is being undervalued. Victor Caratini is a switch-hitter who is better from the left side, and the Seattle Mariners bullpen may be without both of its left-handed arms. He’s also very familiar with Luis Castillo, with 23 career at-bats against him. Castillo may be on the back end of his prime. He’s been inefficient this year, allowing 31 hits in just 23 innings, and projects as a pitcher who could give up 25–30 home runs over the full season. The fair price for a Caratini home run sits around +770, and double-digit winds blowing out only add to the appeal. Kody Clemens (+520) and Josh Bell (+590) also project as +EV in this game.

No player is showing more expected value today at Covers than Trent Grisham at +490. He projects for 0.23 home runs, with the price implying 0.19. He could see five at-bats hitting leadoff and has gone deep twice over the last seven days. The matchup is favorable against Jack Leiter, a flyball arm who allows some of the best launch angles in baseball. Grisham is also elite at squaring the ball up, leading the New York Yankees in that metric while ranking second in Blast Contact%. Only two players in baseball currently have a higher square-up rate. On a small slate with poor weather expected on the East Coast, an indoor environment stands out as the best place to target home runs on Monday.

The Cubs send a superior lineup to the dish with a seventh-ranked wOBA against righties, while the Padres offense ranks 28th in wOBA against lefties. I’m confident in Cubbies southpaw Matt Boyd now that he's a start removed from returning from his biceps injury, with Boyd posting a rock-solid 3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 3.74 xERA since joining the club in 2025. Additionally, Friars righty Randy Vasquez‘s 1.88 ERA is miles below his 4.31 xERA, so I’m expecting hiccups navigating a Chicago lineup that’s specialized in timely hitting during an active 13-5 heater.