MLB Picks

The Kansas City Royals should be the favorites in this matchup against the Houston Astros, which is why I'm hitting the button on the +101 price. I make the Royals closer to a -115 favorite in this spot. Tatsuya Imai's 6.03 BB/9 is a major concern, and those free passes provide a huge boost for a Royals offense that can sometimes struggle to score runs and generate power. Walks allow Kansas City to create offense through its speed, aggressive baserunning, and contact-oriented approach. The Royals' speed on the bases, led by Bobby Witt Jr., should also put pressure on Imai and potentially force him to lean more heavily on his fastball rather than his secondary pitches. If that happens, it could create opportunities for Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino to sit on fastballs and drive the ball with authority.

Kody Clemens has been swinging a hot bat in recent matchups against right handed pitching, posting elite quality contact numbers over his last 30 at bats, including a 54.2% hard hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and strong .379 average with a 1.262 OPS. He now faces Kyle Leahy, who has struggled to limit damage, especially versus left handed hitters, allowing elevated hard contact and power metrics including a .619 xSLG and .434 xwOBA. Leahy’s arsenal grades below league average overall, while Clemens profiles well against his pitch mix. After an 0 for 4 Thursday, Clemens looks positioned for a bounce back spot.

Yandy Díaz is one of my favorite home run targets on the board tonight. The Rays slugger has been scorching left handed pitching, posting a .400 batting average, .720 slugging percentage, 1.187 OPS, and 221 wRC+ over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws. He has also generated a 56.5% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate during that stretch. Díaz draws Angels left hander Sam Aldegheri, who has surrendered a 61.9% fly-ball rate and 19% line-drive rate to right handed hitters this season. Add in Díaz's elite 94.7% arsenal coverage rating on Batters-Box, and the ingredients are there for a long ball.

San Francisco's offense remains inconsistent despite hot stretches from Bryce Eldridge and Jung Hoo Lee. Chicago scored nine runs in the last game but had managed just nine total across its previous four. With Landen Roupp's underlying numbers stronger than his results suggest, I'd play the Under up to -110.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.