Boston @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is certain to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game considering none of the available options for the Boston Red Sox share his handedness. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Considering Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Alex Verdugo will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. Alex Verdugo is assured to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever all game considering none of the available options for the Boston Red Sox share his handedness. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Alex Verdugo will hold that advantage today. In terms of his batting average, Alex Verdugo has been unlucky this year. His .237 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .264.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the league. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage against Clarke Schmidt in today's matchup. The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. By putting up a .270 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Rafael Devers grades out in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 15th-best batter in the game as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage over Clarke Schmidt in today's game. The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Jarren Duran has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Clarke Schmidt in today's matchup. The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this year (10°) is considerably better than his 3.9° mark last season.

Hitting from the opposite that Clarke Schmidt throws from, Triston Casas will have an advantage in today's matchup. The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Over the last 7 days, Triston Casas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11% up to 28.6%. In the past two weeks, Triston Casas's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 97 mph to 94.9 mph. In notching a .335 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Triston Casas is ranked in the 82nd percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in MLB. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Juan Soto will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Houck in today's game... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split. Juan Soto is certain to hold the advantage against every reliever all game since none of the available options for the Boston Red Sox share his handedness. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Volpe in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Anthony Volpe will hold that advantage in today's game. With a .315 BABIP this year, Anthony Volpe is ranked in the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jasson Dominguez in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The switch-hitting Jasson Dominguez will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Tanner Houck... and even better, Houck has a large platoon split. Jasson Dominguez pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jasson Dominguez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Sporting a .400 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jasson Dominguez has performed in the 99th percentile for offensive skills.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Clarke Schmidt throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage today. The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Wilyer Abreu has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 94.7-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Over the last two weeks, Wilyer Abreu's 58.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Giancarlo Stanton ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Giancarlo Stanton is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Giancarlo Stanton will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Giancarlo Stanton has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 15.8% rate last year to 21.2% this year. Giancarlo Stanton has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 21.2% seasonal rate to 36.4% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Connor Wong is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Connor Wong has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 5.7% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the last 7 days. Over the past 14 days, Connor Wong's 53.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Ceddanne Rafaela has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.7% seasonal rate to 27.8% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 88.8-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 86.8-mph average. In the past two weeks, Ceddanne Rafaela's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.8%.

Anthony Rizzo will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Houck in today's game... and moreover, Houck has a large platoon split. Anthony Rizzo is certain to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game as none of the available options for the Boston Red Sox share his handedness. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Anthony Rizzo will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Anthony Rizzo's true offensive talent to be a .303, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .028 deviation between that mark and his actual .275 wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Tyler O'Neill has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 16.9% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week. Tyler O'Neill has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph mark.

Gleyber Torres's batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gleyber Torres is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Gleyber Torres will hold that advantage today. Over the past 7 days, Gleyber Torres's 60% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Wells in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Austin Wells is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Austin Wells will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's game... and even better, Houck has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Austin Wells is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the whole game. Austin Wells will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The New York Yankees infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.9°, Trevor Story has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26.7° mark in the past week's worth of games. Trevor Story has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .245 figure is a good deal lower than his .276 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage today. Aaron Judge's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 44.6% on the season to 55.6% in the past two weeks. Aaron Judge has compiled a .470 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.