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Total PicksBAL 261, BOS 158
This matchup is projected to have the most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
This matchup is projected to have the most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gunnar Henderson today.
This matchup is projected to have the most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Ryan O'Hearn will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when assessing his BABIP ability. Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Batters such as Austin Slater with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Emmanuel Rivera has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Rafael Devers projects as the 18th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today. Rafael Devers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage today.
Coby Mayo's BABIP ability is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Pivetta today. Cedric Mullins will probably have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand today. Wilyer Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage in today's game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage today.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Adley Rutschman pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Masataka Yoshida will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Masataka Yoshida will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Eloy Jimenez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Bats such as Eloy Jimenez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's game. Colton Cowser is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Colton Cowser has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Holliday has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jackson Holliday has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Batters such as Jackson Holliday with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Pivetta who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
Trevor Story has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.
Triston Casas has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.
Livan Soto has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.
Connor Wong has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.
Ceddanne Rafaela has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.
Last Meeting ( Sep 10, 2024 ) Baltimore 5, Boston 3
After a big night from Cedric Mullins helped the Orioles snap their slump, Baltimore will aim for a series win on Wednesday in the decisive contest of a three-game set against the host Boston Red Sox.
With a 5-3 victory over Boston on Tuesday plus the Kansas City Royals' 5-0 victory over the Yankees, the Orioles moved within one-half game of first-place New York in the American League East.
Mullins hit two home runs as Baltimore ended a three-game losing streak, one night after the Red Sox won 12-3 in the series opener. The Orioles (83-63) scored seven runs in their previous five games, losing four times in that span.
"Cedric for the last couple weeks has taken really good at-bats, and he was huge for us (Tuesday)," Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said. "I was happy with our offense. We didn't push quite enough across, but I thought we were doing a better job of keeping the line moving, taking walks, and those big hits are going to start coming a little bit more often."
Mullins belted a solo home run in the first inning and a two-run shot in the third. Both came against Boston starting pitcher Kutter Crawford, who has allowed 31 home runs this season -- the most of any major league pitcher. It was the fifth multi-homer game of Mullins' career.
"I was able to put some really good swings on the ball today," Mullins said. "It was a good boost for the morale in the clubhouse. ... Great momentum going into the next day."
The Red Sox (73-72) struck out 10 times in the loss as they fell four games behind the Minnesota Twins in the chase for the final American League wild-card berth.
Boston manager Alex Cora admitted he is frustrated with his team's inconsistent offense. The Red Sox have an 8-49 record this season when they put up fewer than four runs.
"We're an offensive club, and at one point we were the best offense in baseball," Cora said. "We felt like whenever we faced a righty we had a chance to score a lot of runs, and we haven't done that in the last month, month and a half.
"When we were hot, everybody was hitting the ball all over the place, and it just happens that everybody is struggling at the same time."
The Wednesday probable pitchers are Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer (7-9, 4.27 ERA) and Boston righty Nick Pivetta (5-10, 4.38).
Kremer began with six no-hit innings in his latest start -- a 2-0 victory over Tampa Bay -- before Rays rookie Junior Caminero led off the seventh with a single. He didn't retire either of the next two batters before exiting. It was Kremer's first start since he was struck on the right forearm by a line drive on Aug. 31.
Kremer is 1-1 with a 6.45 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox. He hasn't faced Boston this year.
Pivetta allowed one run on five hits in six innings during the Red Sox's 3-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox on Friday, but he didn't factor in the decision. He struck out six and walked three.
Pivetta is 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA in 13 career starts against the Orioles. He lost at Baltimore on Aug. 15 after giving up three runs on three hits in five innings.
--Field Level Media
Baltimore Trends
Boston Trends
