Miami @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Kyle Stowers has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 94.2-mph. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Kyle Stowers has had some very poor luck this year. His .256 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .291.

Griffin Conine is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Griffin Conine has averaged an impressive 101.1-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced proxy for home run potential.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Jesus Sanchez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season's 90.3-mph average. Jesus Sanchez has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .313 mark is quite a bit lower than his .347 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. David Hensley will have the handedness advantage against Carmen Mlodzinski today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.235) suggests that David Hensley has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .217 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Adam Oller in today's matchup. Oneil Cruz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Bryan De La Cruz will hold that advantage in today's game. Bryan De La Cruz has been unlucky this year, compiling a .285 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .027 discrepancy.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Adam Oller in today's game. Bryan Reynolds will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

HRs are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 8th-deepest in the majors. Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased lately; his 86.3-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 78-mph over the last 14 days. Xavier Edwards's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (0.6° over the past two weeks) is significantly worse than his 9.1° seasonal mark. Xavier Edwards has been cold lately, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) in the last week's worth of games.

HRs are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 8th-deepest in the majors. Adam Oller will have the handedness advantage over Isiah Kiner-Falefa today. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 88.8-mph EV last season has dropped off to 85.7-mph. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 88-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 83.8-mph in the last 7 days. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's launch angle of late (-2.5° in the past 14 days) is considerably worse than his 8.4° seasonal mark.

Otto Lopez's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Otto Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Otto Lopez will have the handedness advantage against Carmen Mlodzinski in today's matchup. Otto Lopez has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .253 BA is considerably lower than his .276 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Connor Norby is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. This contest is expected to have the 11th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Connor Norby will hold the platoon advantage over Carmen Mlodzinski today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Andrew McCutchen will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The Barrel% of Andrew McCutchen has significantly improved, with an increase from 6.8% last year to 12.5% this year.

Joey Bart is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Joey Bart will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. This year, Joey Bart's 11.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 82nd percentile among his peers. Joey Bart's maximum exit velocity (an advanced metric to measure power) has been 111.5 mph this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Batting from the opposite that Carmen Mlodzinski throws from, Jonah Bride will have an advantage in today's matchup. In the past week, Jonah Bride's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.1% up to 11.1%. Placing in the 80th percentile, Jonah Bride has notched a .332 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Posting a 1.56 K/BB rate this year, Jonah Bride has shown impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jake Burger is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Jake Burger will have the handedness advantage over Carmen Mlodzinski today. Using Statcast metrics, Jake Burger ranks in the 76th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .335.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Hitting from the opposite that Carmen Mlodzinski throws from, Jhonny Pereda will have an advantage in today's matchup.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Batting from the opposite that Adam Oller throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Rowdy Tellez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 101.9-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jared Triolo will hold that advantage today. Jared Triolo has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.9-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.6-mph mark. Jared Triolo's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, rising from 41.1% on the season to 53.8% over the last two weeks.