Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (97% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Cedric Mullins will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Cedric Mullins will probably have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 18th-best batter in the game. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Rafael Devers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The weather report projects the 8th-most favorable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Gunnar Henderson's true offensive ability to be a .364, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .021 gap between that figure and his actual .385 wOBA.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Anthony Santander tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 2nd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Livan Soto will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Livan Soto has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The weather report projects the 8th-most favorable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the same side that Cade Povich throws from, Jarren Duran will have a disadvantage today. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, going from 13.8% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, compiling a .368 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .029 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 20th-best hitter in MLB when assessing his BABIP skill. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Colton Cowser is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup.

Coby Mayo's BABIP ability is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Extreme groundball hitters like Coby Mayo generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Emmanuel Rivera has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Emmanuel Rivera has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.4% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past 14 days. Emmanuel Rivera has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 91.8-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Over the past 14 days, Emmanuel Rivera's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.5%. Emmanuel Rivera has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .219 mark is quite a bit lower than his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Adley Rutschman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Jackson Holliday will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Jackson Holliday may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. The #5 park in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Ryan O'Hearn will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Connor Wong will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Trevor Story will hold the platoon advantage over Cade Povich in today's matchup. Trevor Story will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Danny Jansen will have an edge today. Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Eloy Jimenez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Eloy Jimenez has been unlucky this year, posting a .285 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .036 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in MLB for righty BABIP. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. Romy Gonzalez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich today.