Tampa Bay @ Baltimore Picks & Props

The weather forecast projects the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Corbin Burnes will hold the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz today. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 91.9-mph seasonal average has dropped to 84.2-mph in the past week's worth of games. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (0.7°) is a significant dropoff from his 4.9° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #8 venue in the league for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Siri has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 15.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 7 days. Jose Siri has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year's 94-mph mark. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.5°, Jose Siri has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24.7° figure in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The weather forecast projects the 3rd-most favorable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 94.8 mph to 91.6 mph. Gunnar Henderson has been lucky this year, notching a .383 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .364 — a .019 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater as the 7th-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #8 venue in the league for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Austin Slater will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Austin Slater's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 45.2% to 52.9%.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Littell in today's game. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Cedric Mullins will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #8 venue in the league for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Junior Caminero has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 96.8-mph.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Colton Cowser is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Colton Cowser is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Littell in today's game. Colton Cowser will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Dylan Carlson is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest RF fences in the majors are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Dylan Carlson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.6-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 87.4-mph EV. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (21.3°) is a considerable increase over his 15° mark last season.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Adley Rutschman pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Adley Rutschman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Emmanuel Rivera has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Emmanuel Rivera will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Emmanuel Rivera's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.5% up to 11.1%. In the last week's worth of games, Emmanuel Rivera's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.5%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.251) suggests that Emmanuel Rivera has had some very poor luck this year with his .218 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ryan O'Hearn will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Littell today. Ryan O'Hearn will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Christopher Morel is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #8 venue in the league for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the last 7 days, Christopher Morel's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.6-mph over the course of the season to 102.9-mph in recent games. Christopher Morel's launch angle of late (21.5° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 14.7° seasonal angle.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest RF fences in the majors are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage over Corbin Burnes today.

Eloy Jimenez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #8 venue in the league for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Eloy Jimenez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Eloy Jimenez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Eloy Jimenez has been unlucky this year, notching a .286 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .035 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Littell today. Jackson Holliday will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) may lead us to conclude that Jackson Holliday has been unlucky this year with his .241 actual wOBA.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #8 venue in the league for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Caballero's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (26.7° over the last 14 days) is a significant increase over his 17° seasonal mark.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Anthony Santander will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Anthony Santander's launch angle this season (23.1°) is considerably higher than his 20° angle last year.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ben Rortvedt will have the handedness advantage against Corbin Burnes today. Ben Rortvedt has notched a .325 BABIP this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest RF fences in the majors are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Nick Maton will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Littell today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Nick Maton will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nick Maton has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .171 mark is deflated compared to his .185 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Taylor Walls hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Taylor Walls has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 86.4-mph mark. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.2°, Taylor Walls has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 22.2° mark over the last two weeks. As it relates to plate discipline, Taylor Walls's talent is quite good, sporting a 1.87 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 85th percentile.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.