Cincinnati @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citi Field as the worst field in the majors for left-handed batting average. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which often leads to worse offense. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 4th-least humid conditions of all games today at 37%. As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Francisco Lindor will have a tough time against Julian Aguiar and his large platoon split in today's game.

Harrison Bader pulls many of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today. Harrison Bader will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. In the past two weeks, Harrison Bader's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.8-mph over the course of the season to 94.9-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Amed Rosario as the 16th-best hitter in the league as it relates to his BABIP skill. Amed Rosario hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Amed Rosario has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.5-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 87-mph figure. In the past week, Amed Rosario's 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and J.D. Martinez will hold that advantage in today's game. In notching a .340 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, J.D. Martinez grades out in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Because of Julian Aguiar's large platoon split, Brandon Nimmo will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today.

Noelvi Marte hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Noelvi Marte has been unlucky this year, putting up a .234 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .291 — a .057 deviation. Grading out in the 78th percentile, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 111.5 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Alonso in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Pete Alonso pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.1% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Luis Severino. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

Ty France's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ty France is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Ty France has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 93.5-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte as the 20th-best batter in the game when assessing his BABIP ability. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Starling Marte will hold that advantage in today's game. Starling Marte has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 106.6-mph average over the past week to his seasonal figure of 92.2-mph.

Jose Iglesias's batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jose Iglesias will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last two weeks, Jose Iglesias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 83.8-mph over the course of the season to 89-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Tyler Stephenson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Tyler Stephenson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Tyler Stephenson has put up a .333 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.2°, Santiago Espinal has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26.5° angle over the past 7 days. Last season, Santiago Espinal had an average launch angle of 8.8° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 12.9°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Jonathan India pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Over the last 7 days, Jonathan India's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.5% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Jesse Winker is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Jesse Winker will hold the platoon advantage over Julian Aguiar in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Aguiar has a large platoon split. Jesse Winker has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Mark Vientos ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage today.

The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among every team playing today. Luis Torrens will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, Luis Torrens is in the 86th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .268. By putting up a .263 batting average since the start of last season, Luis Torrens is positioned in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Spencer Steer is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.3°, Spencer Steer has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 24.9° mark over the past two weeks.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Hitting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, TJ Friedl will have an edge in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. TJ Friedl's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (10°) is significantly higher than his 5.8° angle last season.

Jake Fraley is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Batting from the opposite that Luis Severino throws from, Jake Fraley will have an edge today. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. In the past week, Jake Fraley's 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.3%.

The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Luke Maile has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .207 rate is a fair amount lower than his .222 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Luke Maile and his 19.6° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 90th percentile, among the highest in the game since the start of last season.

Will Benson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Severino in today's game. Will Benson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets. Will Benson's 12.2% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) ranks in the 83rd percentile this year.