Atlanta @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Citizens Bank Park projects as the #24 stadium in the league for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching of all games on the slate. Reynaldo Lopez will hold the platoon advantage over Trea Turner in today's game. Trea Turner has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.

Michael Harris II's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Michael Harris II has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Over the last week, Michael Harris II's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8% up to 30.8%. Michael Harris II has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.5-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 92.1-mph. Over the past week, Michael Harris II's 53.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 3rd-best hitter in the game when assessing his BABIP talent. Batting from the opposite that Reynaldo Lopez throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an advantage in today's matchup. Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Orlando Arcia will have an advantage in today's matchup. Orlando Arcia pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Orlando Arcia's launch angle this year (9°) is quite a bit higher than his 5.5° figure last year. Orlando Arcia's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 14.4% on the season to 24.2% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Bryson Stott is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Reynaldo Lopez throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand in today's game. Bryson Stott has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Sean Murphy will have an edge in today's matchup. Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Despite posting a .291 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Sean Murphy has had some very poor luck given the .041 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

Whit Merrifield's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Whit Merrifield is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Whit Merrifield will have an advantage in today's game. Whit Merrifield has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.1-mph to 87.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Kyle Schwarber ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Batting from the opposite that Reynaldo Lopez throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage today. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jorge Soler ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Soler is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Jorge Soler will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's game. Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.3°, Jorge Soler has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26.4° figure in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 76th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves. Edmundo Sosa will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Edmundo Sosa is quite quick, grading out in the 94th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.32 ft/sec this year.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Reynaldo Lopez throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage in today's game. Bryce Harper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Over the past week, Matt Olson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.2-mph over the course of the season to 99.2-mph lately. Despite posting a .325 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt Olson has experienced some negative variance given the .023 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.

Ramon Laureano's BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ramon Laureano has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Ramon Laureano will have the upper hand today. Ramon Laureano has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.7-mph average to last season's 88-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage in today's game. J.T. Realmuto has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9.2% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Marcell Ozuna will hold the platoon advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's game. Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Marcell Ozuna has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.7-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph mark.

Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves. Johan Rojas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Johan Rojas's speed has gotten better this year. His 29.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 30.12 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Nick Castellanos is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves. Nick Castellanos will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Gio Urshela's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all stadiums — generally good for homers. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Gio Urshela will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Gio Urshela has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.7-mph average to last season's 87.4-mph figure. In terms of his batting average, Gio Urshela has had bad variance on his side this year. His .248 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .272.