New York @ Chicago Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Miguel Vargas will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. In the last 7 days, Brandon Nimmo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%. In the last week, Brandon Nimmo's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 93.2 mph to 75.6 mph. Compared to his seasonal angle of 11°, Brandon Nimmo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1.1°) in the last two weeks.

The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will bat from his weak side (0) today against Jonathan Cannon Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Francisco Lindor in today's matchup.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jacob Amaya will hold that advantage today. Jacob Amaya and his 18° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 86th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Mark Vientos ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 5th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 81°. Among all the teams playing today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Mets. Brooks Baldwin will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brooks Baldwin has suffered from bad luck given the .037 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .291.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Pete Alonso ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Pete Alonso pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Andrew Benintendi will have the handedness advantage against Tylor Megill in today's matchup.

Luis Robert's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Robert is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Luis Robert pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, J.D. Martinez ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. J.D. Martinez has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. J.D. Martinez has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 15.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the past 7 days.

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Harrison Bader pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences today. Over the last week, Harrison Bader's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.7% up to 18.2%. In the last week's worth of games, Harrison Bader's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.9-mph over the course of the season to 105-mph of late.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Korey Lee will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.2°, Korey Lee has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 18.8° angle in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jesse Winker is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Jesse Winker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jonathan Cannon today.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. In the last two weeks, Francisco Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90-mph over the course of the season to 100.1-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Jeff McNeil will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jonathan Cannon in today's matchup.

Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Dominic Fletcher will have an advantage in today's game. Dominic Fletcher may have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Dominic Fletcher has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage against Tylor Megill in today's matchup.

Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humidity on the slate at 75%. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Tylor Megill throws from, Nicky Lopez will have an edge today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nicky Lopez has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.