Boston @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jarren Duran in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Jarren Duran's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.1%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jarren Duran's true offensive talent to be a .334, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .027 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .361 wOBA.

Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game. Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Mountcastle in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Ryan Mountcastle has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 14 days. Ryan Mountcastle's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 93.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest right field fences among all parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Jackson Holliday will have an advantage in today's game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Cedric Mullins II will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today. Cedric Mullins II pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 14th-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Nick Sogard pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 13th-strongest among every team on the slate today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in baseball. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest right field fences among all parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #9 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Rob Refsnyder has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 3.9% rate last season to 10.7% this season.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #9 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. James McCann hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among every team in action today, the 14th-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and James McCann will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Adley Rutschman pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 18th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Zach Eflin today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 19th-best hitter in the league when it comes to his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Colton Cowser will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #9 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Dominic Smith will have the upper hand in today's game. Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Dominic Smith has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89-mph average.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team in action today, the 14th-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Connor Wong is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #9 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Connor Wong has compiled a .360 BABIP this year, checking in at the 97th percentile.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest right field fences among all parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage today. David Hamilton has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.6% seasonal rate to 11.8% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #9 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Ramon Urias has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Ramon Urias usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta. Among every team in action today, the 14th-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #9 stadium in the majors for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 84°. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's game.