St. Louis @ Chicago Picks & Props

10% of the time that Alec Burleson has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pinch hit for. Wrigley Field has the 5th-deepest right field fences in the majors. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for pitchers. Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 93-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 90-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Michael Busch is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Michael Busch will have the handedness advantage over Erick Fedde today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Michael Busch will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Hitting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge today. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Over the last 14 days, Nolan Gorman has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 17.1% to 27.3%. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (26.3°) is significantly better than his 21.5° figure last season.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Willson Contreras has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.1-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Ian Happ is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will get to bat from his strong side against Erick Fedde today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Lars Nootbaar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Javier Assad today. Lars Nootbaar has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Nolan Arenado has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 85.5-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Over the past two weeks, Tommy Pham's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph lately. Compared to last year, Tommy Pham has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.3% to 49.1% this season.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the upper hand today. Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Dansby Swanson will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Nico Hoerner will hold that advantage in today's game. Nico Hoerner has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .254 figure is considerably lower than his .276 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Masyn Winn has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95-mph average over the past week to his seasonal average of 87.1-mph. Posting a .269 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Masyn Winn has performed in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Cody Bellinger will have the handedness advantage over Erick Fedde in today's matchup.

Brendan Donovan's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Javier Assad in today's matchup. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most humidity of all games today at 77%. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Christian Bethancourt will hold that advantage in today's game. Christian Bethancourt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 15.2% to 20.6%.