New York @ Boston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Masataka Yoshida has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Masataka Yoshida tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nestor Cortes. Masataka Yoshida will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Rafael Devers has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Rafael Devers will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report expects the 4th-least humid conditions of all games today at 36%. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Aaron Judge will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game. Aaron Judge will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Aaron Judge's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 96.2-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 93.1-mph in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Rice in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Benjamin Rice will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Over the past week, Benjamin Rice's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 102.9-mph recently.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Juan Soto will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, Jarren Duran is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Fenway Park profiles as the #6 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Trent Grisham will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. Trent Grisham hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Trent Grisham has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 94.7-mph over the last 14 days. Trent Grisham's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 15.7% to 22.4%.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report expects the 4th-least humid conditions of all games today at 36%. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alex Verdugo in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo's 90.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced standard to measure power) is in the 23rd percentile this year. Alex Verdugo has recorded a .286 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.

Fenway Park profiles as the #6 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Brayan Bello... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Oswaldo Cabrera hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. Tyler O'Neill will hold the platoon advantage over Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have an edge in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Gleyber Torres ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Gleyber Torres is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. In the past week, Gleyber Torres's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.7% up to 14.3%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Austin Wells ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Austin Wells is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Fenway Park profiles as the #6 park in the league for lefty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Austin Wells will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Volpe in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. Anthony Volpe has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Anthony Volpe has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .251 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .269 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects DJ LeMahieu in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. DJ LeMahieu has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. In terms of his batting average, DJ LeMahieu has had bad variance on his side this year. His .179 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .259. Sporting a 1.39 K/BB rate this year, DJ LeMahieu has displayed good plate discipline, ranking in the 95th percentile.

Connor Wong is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Connor Wong will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. Connor Wong will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Romy Gonzalez will have an advantage today. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Romy Gonzalez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Batting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best venue in the league for righty BABIP. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Batting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Jamie Westbrook will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jamie Westbrook will hold that advantage today. Jamie Westbrook's launch angle recently (17.3° over the last 7 days) is significantly higher than his 13.8° seasonal figure.