Boston @ Colorado Picks & Props

Out of every team in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Connor Wong today. Connor Wong's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 89.1-mph average last season has decreased to 86.2-mph. Connor Wong's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 86.2-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Compared to his seasonal figure of 13.2°, Connor Wong has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1.8°) in the past two weeks.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela today. Ceddanne Rafaela has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week. Ceddanne Rafaela has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the last 7 days.

Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Romy Gonzalez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Romy Gonzalez's 5.3° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in Major League Baseball: 11th percentile. As it relates to plate discipline, Romy Gonzalez's talent is quite poor, sporting a 7.29 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 9th percentile.

Considering Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Brendan Rodgers will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish today. Brendan Rodgers has struggled with his Barrel%; his 11% rate last year has decreased to 4.9% this year. Brendan Rodgers's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 19.7% to 9.3%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.272) may lead us to conclude that Brendan Rodgers has been very fortunate this year with his .301 actual wOBA. Brendan Rodgers has recorded a .279 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 19th percentile.

Cooper Criswell will have the handedness advantage over Ezequiel Tovar in today's game... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ezequiel Tovar has had some very good luck this year. His .332 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .280. When it comes to plate discipline, Ezequiel Tovar's talent is quite weak, putting up a 9.2 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 1st percentile.

The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 88°. Sam Hilliard will hold the platoon advantage over Cooper Criswell today... and the cherry on top, Criswell has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Sam Hilliard will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elias Diaz in the 16th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Elias Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Elias Diaz will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game. Elias Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 91.2-mph figure last year has fallen off to 87.8-mph. Elias Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 14.5% to 10.8%.

Out of every team in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Tyler O'Neill will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. When it comes to his batting average, Tyler O'Neill has been lucky this year. His .259 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .214.

Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage against Brenton Doyle today... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brenton Doyle's true offensive skill to be a .296, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .051 gap between that figure and his actual .347 wOBA.

Out of every team in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Rob Refsnyder today. Rob Refsnyder's launch angle this season (8.5°) is considerably worse than his 11.6° figure last year. Rob Refsnyder has been lucky this year, notching a .369 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .041 difference.

Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage against German Marquez today. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Rafael Devers has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 15.2% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past 7 days. Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.1°, Rafael Devers has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-15.5°) in the past two weeks.

Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage over Kris Bryant in today's matchup... and it's a particular mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 88°.

Jake Cave's BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Jake Cave will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.

The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°. The switch-hitting Michael Toglia will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Cooper Criswell... and even better, Criswell has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Michael Toglia will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Charlie Blackmon in the 23rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Over the last week, Charlie Blackmon's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%. Charlie Blackmon has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph dropping to 80.9-mph in the past 14 days. Charlie Blackmon has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .251 rate is a fair amount higher than his .226 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup. Masataka Yoshida will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against German Marquez in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Masataka Yoshida's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.4-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 84.9-mph over the last two weeks.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°. Aaron Schunk will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Jarren Duran is projected as the 12th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. The #1 ballpark in MLB for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Coors Field sits at the highest elevation among all parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 87°. Hitting from the same side that German Marquez throws from, Jamie Westbrook will have a disadvantage today.

David Hamilton has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Dominic Smith has not yet played a game this season.

Wilyer Abreu has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.