New York @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

This year, Amed Rosario has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against southpaw. The #3 park in the league for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Amed Rosario hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Amed Rosario's launch angle this season (2.6°) is a significant dropoff from his 7.5° mark last year.

The #3 park in the league for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Yandy Diaz's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 92.2-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 88.7-mph in the last week's worth of games. Yandy Diaz's launch angle lately (-18.4° over the past 7 days) is considerably worse than his 3.8° seasonal angle. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (-0.7°) is a considerable dropoff from his 4.9° angle last year.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Benjamin Rice ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Benjamin Rice is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest right field fences among all stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Benjamin Rice will have an edge today. Benjamin Rice has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 18.8% seasonal rate to 37.5% over the last week.

Batting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Jose Caballero will have the upper hand today. Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage today. Jose Caballero has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 5.8% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past 14 days. Compared to his seasonal mark of 13.1°, Jose Caballero has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (8.7°) over the past two weeks.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. Juan Soto will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz in today's game. Juan Soto has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 13.2% rate last season to 18.5% this season. Juan Soto has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 18.5% seasonal rate to 23.5% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alex Verdugo is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Alex Verdugo will have the handedness advantage against Shane Baz in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. In the last week, Alex Verdugo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.8-mph over the course of the season to 94.5-mph recently.

Jose Siri's BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Jose Siri will have the upper hand in today's game. Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Siri has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last season's 94-mph mark.

Trent Grisham will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today's game. Trent Grisham has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.9-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Gleyber Torres is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Gleyber Torres has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 96-mph over the last week. Gleyber Torres's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 37.8% on the season to 62.5% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Randy Arozarena will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today's game. Randy Arozarena has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects DJ LeMahieu in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. DJ LeMahieu has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. DJ LeMahieu has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99-mph average in the past week to his seasonal figure of 91.8-mph. DJ LeMahieu has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .248 rate is considerably lower than his .323 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of plate discipline, DJ LeMahieu's skill is quite strong, sporting a 1.87 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 83rd percentile.

The switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Shane Baz.

Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Austin Wells will have an advantage in today's game. Austin Wells has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Austin Wells's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 103.6-mph in recent games. Austin Wells's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (36.6° over the last 14 days) is significantly better than his 16° seasonal mark. Austin Wells has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .210 figure is a good deal lower than his .244 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Brandon Lowe has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the past two weeks. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Brandon Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.9-mph over the course of the season to 101.1-mph lately.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums. The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Nestor Cortes. Taylor Walls will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Volpe in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Anthony Volpe has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. When it comes to his batting average, Anthony Volpe has had bad variance on his side this year. His .249 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .268.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in baseball. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Checking in at the 100th percentile, Aaron Judge sits with a .458 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Aaron Judge has put up a .315 batting average this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.1% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Isaac Paredes has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Alex Jackson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Alex Jackson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Jackson's true offensive ability to be a .275, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .154 deviation between that mark and his actual .121 wOBA.