St. Louis @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jesse Winker is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. The 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Nationals Park. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Gibson throws from, Jesse Winker will have an advantage today.

The #3 park in the majors for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. DJ Herz will have the handedness advantage against Alec Burleson in today's game. Alec Burleson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Over the last week, Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 92.9 mph to 88.5 mph. Alec Burleson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, going from 45.4% on the season to 32.6% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 park in baseball for RHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Masyn Winn in today's game. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.7-mph mark last season has dropped to 86.2-mph. Masyn Winn's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (0.8° in the last 14 days) is a significant dropoff from his 4.1° seasonal figure. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Masyn Winn has had some very good luck this year. His .328 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .314.

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 park in baseball for RHB BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Paul Goldschmidt will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Over the last week, Paul Goldschmidt's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.4% up to 18.8%. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, decreasing from 12.2% on the season to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Sporting a 3.65 K/BB rate this year, Paul Goldschmidt has displayed poor plate discipline, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. James Wood is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. The 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Nationals Park. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). James Wood will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Gibson in today's matchup.

The #3 park in the majors for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. When it comes to plate discipline, Luis Garcia's ability is quite poor, posting a 3.63 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 23rd percentile.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nolan Gorman is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP. Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Compared to his seasonal average of 21°, Nolan Gorman has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 55° figure in the last 7 days. Last year, Nolan Gorman had an average launch angle of 21.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 26.9°.

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Kyle Gibson. Keibert Ruiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage today.

The #3 park in the majors for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). LaVictor Lipscomb has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and LaVictor Lipscomb will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. The 7th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Nationals Park. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brendan Donovan has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Brendan Donovan has had bad variance on his side this year. His .325 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .345.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Lane Thomas ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lane Thomas is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Lane Thomas will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. In the past week, Lane Thomas's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 100.8-mph in recent games.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Pedro Pages will hold the platoon advantage over DJ Herz in today's game.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Juan Yepez will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jacob Young will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the past 7 days, Jacob Young's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 11.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, Willson Contreras will have the upper hand in today's game. Willson Contreras has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Dylan Carlson will get to bat from his better side against DJ Herz in today's matchup. Dylan Carlson has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (26.9°) is quite a bit higher than his 15° mark last season. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.245) suggests that Dylan Carlson has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .212 actual batting average.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nolan Arenado will hold the platoon advantage over DJ Herz in today's matchup. Over the past 14 days, Nolan Arenado's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.9%.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of the day at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Riley Adams has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Riley Adams will hold that advantage today. This season, Riley Adams has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95 mph compared to last year's 92.4 mph mark. Riley Adams grades out in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (48.4% rate since the start of last season).