Washington @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Tropicana Field as the 4th-worst ballpark in MLB for RHB base hits. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Jake Irvin will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz today. Yandy Diaz has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph dropping to 88.9-mph in the past week's worth of games. Compared to his seasonal mark of 3.6°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.1°) over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Jesse Winker is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The 5th-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB are found in Tropicana Field. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Civale throws from, Jesse Winker will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jesse Winker has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 8.8% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Aaron Civale throws from, CJ Abrams will have an advantage today. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.9°, CJ Abrams has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21° angle in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage in today's game. This season, Jose Siri has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.2 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.334) provides evidence that Jose Siri has experienced some negative variance this year with his .313 actual wOBA.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB. Nick Senzel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 11.4% to 22.6%. Nick Senzel has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .216 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .236 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Nick Senzel has displayed strong plate discipline this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile with a 1.77 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Randy Arozarena will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Randy Arozarena has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past two weeks. Randy Arozarena has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 94.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Harold Ramirez as the 20th-best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average skill. Harold Ramirez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Harold Ramirez's true offensive ability to be a .309, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .044 deviation between that mark and his actual .265 wOBA.

Luis Garcia's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Garcia is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Luis Garcia will hold the platoon advantage against Aaron Civale today. Luis Garcia has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Luis Garcia's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (13.9°) is quite a bit better than his 8° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jacob Young has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jacob Young has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph to 86.4-mph in the last two weeks. Jacob Young has posted a .278 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jacob Young has compiled a .338 BABIP this year, ranking in the 87th percentile.

The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Aaron Civale. Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Keibert Ruiz's launch angle this year (20.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 15.1° angle last year. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Keibert Ruiz's true offensive skill to be a .295, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .062 gap between that mark and his actual .233 wOBA.

Hitting from the opposite that Jake Irvin throws from, Richie Palacios will have an advantage in today's matchup. Richie Palacios is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP. Richie Palacios pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Richie Palacios will hold that advantage today. Richie Palacios has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 90-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 87.2-mph figure.

The 5th-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB are found in Tropicana Field. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Lane Thomas is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Lane Thomas pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Lane Thomas has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.1-mph mark. Lane Thomas's launch angle this year (18.7°) is a significant increase over his 10.6° figure last year.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Jake Irvin throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's game. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Brandon Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Meneses in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Joey Meneses is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. Joey Meneses has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Despite posting a .270 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joey Meneses has had some very poor luck given the .031 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.4°, Isaac Paredes has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 32.5° mark in the past two weeks' worth of games. Isaac Paredes's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (22.9°) is a considerable increase over his 18° mark last year.

The 5th-shallowest right field dimensions in MLB are found in Tropicana Field. Eddie Rosario will hold the platoon advantage against Aaron Civale today. Eddie Rosario has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 90.6-mph average. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) may lead us to conclude that Eddie Rosario has had bad variance on his side this year with his .240 actual wOBA.

Ben Rortvedt will have the handedness advantage over Jake Irvin today. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ben Rortvedt stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Ben Rortvedt has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage today. Ben Rortvedt has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 6% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Ildemaro Vargas has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.