Atlanta @ New York Picks & Props

Yankee Stadium profiles as the #22 park in MLB for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Yankee Stadium's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. In today's game, Ozzie Albies is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.9% rate (98th percentile). Extreme flyball batters like Ozzie Albies generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nestor Cortes. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ozzie Albies today.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Benjamin Rice will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Yankee Stadium profiles as the #22 park in MLB for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Yankee Stadium's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Anthony Volpe has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 83.3-mph over the past 14 days. Anthony Volpe's launch angle this season (4.8°) is quite a bit worse than his 14.1° angle last season. Anthony Volpe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, going from 12.6% on the season to 0% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Alex Verdugo is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Alex Verdugo will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jarred Kelenic has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). In the last 7 days, Jarred Kelenic's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph in recent games. Jarred Kelenic's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, rising from 15.7% on the season to 25% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Oswaldo Cabrera will hold that advantage in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in baseball. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's game.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Trent Grisham will hold that advantage today. Trent Grisham's launch angle this season (25.9°) is a considerable increase over his 18.3° figure last year. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Trent Grisham has experienced some negative variance this year. His .240 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .307.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Sean Murphy will hold the platoon advantage over Nestor Cortes in today's game. Sean Murphy has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.5% seasonal rate to 25% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Sean Murphy has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 107.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 95.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects DJ LeMahieu in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, DJ LeMahieu will have an edge today. DJ LeMahieu has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Matt Olson pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. In the past 14 days, Matt Olson's 56.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.8%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in baseball. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Aaron Judge will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Fried today. Extreme groundball batters like Aaron Judge tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.

Austin Riley projects as the 16th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Austin Riley is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Austin Riley will hold the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes today. Austin Riley has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.2% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the last week.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Orlando Arcia will have an edge in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Orlando Arcia usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Gleyber Torres is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Gleyber Torres will have the handedness advantage over Max Fried in today's game. Gleyber Torres has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Marcell Ozuna will hold the platoon advantage over Nestor Cortes today. Marcell Ozuna has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.5-mph average to last year's 96.5-mph average.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Ramon Laureano will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Ramon Laureano's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.5% up to 28.6%. Ramon Laureano's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (20.6°) is quite a bit better than his 13.3° mark last season. In the last 7 days, Ramon Laureano's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.2%.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Jose Trevino will have an advantage today. The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Trevino will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Trevino has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 7 days.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Nestor Cortes throws from, Adam Duvall will have an advantage in today's game. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Adam Duvall has suffered from bad luck this year. His .251 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .320.