Atlanta @ Boston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for righty batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for righty batting average. Among all parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for righty batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Orlando Arcia pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball bats like Orlando Arcia tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's RF fences are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Reese McGuire will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarred Kelenic in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Jarred Kelenic will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for righty batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Adam Duvall pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Adam Duvall's 12.6% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) is in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Ozzie Albies is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Matt Olson projects as the 14th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for righty batting average. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Travis d'Arnaud has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Travis d'Arnaud's 90.6-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in the game since the start of last season: 76th percentile.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. Batting from the same side that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Rob Refsnyder meets a tough challenge today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rob Refsnyder's true offensive skill to be a .324, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .072 deviation between that mark and his actual .396 wOBA.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. Jarren Duran's 5.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) grades out in the 23rd percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Jarren Duran's flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to study power) is in the 20th percentile at 90.3 mph. Jarren Duran is in the 7th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (11.7% rate since the start of last season).

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Austin Riley will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Austin Riley today.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rafael Devers's true offensive skill to be a .358, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .025 difference between that figure and his actual .383 wOBA. Rafael Devers grades out in the 14th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (38.5% rate since the start of last season).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for righty batting average. Among all parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°.

Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. David Hamilton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach in today's game. David Hamilton has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Dominic Smith will have an edge in today's game. Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for righty batting average. Among all parks, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

Enmanuel Valdez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Fenway Park projects as the #3 field in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 85°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters. Enmanuel Valdez will hold the platoon advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach in today's game.