Boston @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Vaughn Grissom's BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.288) provides evidence that Vaughn Grissom has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .243 actual wOBA. Vaughn Grissom has put up a .276 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an edge in today's game. Brendan Donovan will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Dominic Smith will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas today. Dominic Smith and his 15.9° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 85th percentile, among the highest in the game since the start of last season.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyler O'Neill's 12.5% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) is in the 86th percentile since the start of last season. Tyler O'Neill has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 16.7° mark is among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (78th percentile).

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage today. Wilyer Abreu has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 26.74 ft/sec to 27.21 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Wilyer Abreu's 91.2-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in Major League Baseball since the start of last season: 86th percentile.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Connor Wong has been hot in recent games, tallying a .400 wOBA in the last 14 days. Checking in at the 79th percentile, the hardest ball Connor Wong has connected with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill. Connor Wong has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 16.2° figure is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (87th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Jarren Duran will have the upper hand in today's game. Jarren Duran has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .273 mark is inflated compared to his .209 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage today. Ivan Herrera's quickness has gotten better this year. His 26.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.47 ft/sec now. Sporting a .386 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Ivan Herrera grades out in the 97th percentile for hitting ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ranking in the 91st percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.97 ft/sec this year, Ceddanne Rafaela is remarkably athletic.

Busch Stadium projects as the #21 venue in MLB for LHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Busch Stadium has the 2nd-deepest right field fences in MLB. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 4th-best among every team on the slate today. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Rafael Devers today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Rafael Devers's true offensive talent to be a .360, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .025 disparity between that mark and his actual .385 wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand today. Nolan Gorman will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Since the start of last season, Nolan Gorman's 16.7% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 98th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Masyn Winn will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Grading out in the 82nd percentile, Masyn Winn sits with a .280 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.325) suggests that Paul Goldschmidt has been unlucky this year with his .272 actual wOBA.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage today.

Matt Carpenter is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Matt Carpenter will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's game. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Matt Carpenter will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nolan Arenado will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.278) provides evidence that Nolan Arenado has been lucky this year with his .306 actual wOBA. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Nolan Arenado ranks in the 84th percentile with a 16.9° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in Major League Baseball.

Romy Gonzalez has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.