Minnesota @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest fences in the majors — generally bad for HRs. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Carlos Correa in today's matchup. Carlos Correa has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past week. Carlos Correa's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 89.5-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 87.5-mph in the past 7 days. Sporting a .229 batting average this year, Carlos Correa grades out in the 22nd percentile.

This year, Kyle Farmer has been pinch hit for in 23% of his appearances when starting against southpaw. Kyle Farmer pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 79th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Farmer in today's matchup. Sporting a 3.92 K/BB rate this year, Kyle Farmer has demonstrated poor plate discipline, ranking in the 19th percentile.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Among every team today, the 12th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Byron Buxton in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Byron Buxton will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray today. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Carlson in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Among every team today, the 12th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage in today's game. Dylan Carlson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.3-mph average to last season's 86-mph EV.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 11th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Matt Wallner has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.9-mph mark. Matt Wallner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 22.7% on the season to 30% over the past week. In the last 14 days, Matt Wallner's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 17.1% up to 22.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Tommy Edman is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Among every team today, the 12th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Tommy Edman will hold that advantage today.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. The switch-hitting Jorge Polanco will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Matthew Liberatore. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 11th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. The switch-hitting Willi Castro will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Matthew Liberatore. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 11th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Willi Castro has been unlucky this year. His .312 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Among every team today, the 12th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Taylor Motter will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today. Willson Contreras has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.8-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edouard Julien as the 8th-best batter in baseball when assessing his BABIP skill. Edouard Julien is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 11th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Over the last two weeks, Edouard Julien has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 22.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.8°.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Ryan Jeffers will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense projects as the 11th-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Ryan Jeffers has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.7-mph average to last season's 88.2-mph EV. Ryan Jeffers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 40.5% to 52.4%.

Paul Goldschmidt projects as the 14th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Among every team today, the 12th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Paul Goldschmidt will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Nolan Arenado will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Grading out in the 81st percentile, Nolan Arenado has notched a .357 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Nolan Arenado has notched a .278 batting average this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 76th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray today. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among every team today, the 12th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Among every team today, the 12th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Andrew Knizner will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Andrew Knizner has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 3.5% rate last season to 10.6% this year. This season, Andrew Knizner has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.2 mph compared to last year's 87.5 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Donovan Solano is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-hottest weather of all games today at 82°. Donovan Solano will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today's game. Donovan Solano hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Tyler O'Neill has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Christian Vazquez has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Michael A. Taylor has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.