Minute Maid Park
The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -12° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.
Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching. Today, Mauricio Dubon is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.2% rate (91st percentile). Last season, Mauricio Dubon had a launch angle of 10.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 6.1°. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased in recent games, going from 45.4% on the season to 32.3% over the past two weeks.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Heaney in today's game... and even better, Heaney has a large platoon split. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's game.
Martin Maldonado will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Heaney today... and even more favorably, Heaney has a large platoon split. Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .236 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Martin Maldonado has had bad variance on his side given the .041 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .277.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Chas McCormick will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney today... and moreover, Heaney has a large platoon split. Chas McCormick will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Chas McCormick has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 100.9-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 94.5-mph. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (22.5°) is a significant increase over his 18.6° angle last year.
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Alex Bregman will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Heaney has a large platoon split. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 15th-best hitter in baseball. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Kyle Tucker will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Kyle Tucker has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.5% seasonal rate to 20% over the last 14 days. Kyle Tucker has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94.4-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 92-mph.
Corey Julks will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's matchup... and even better, Heaney has a large platoon split. Corey Julks pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Corey Julks will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week, Corey Julks's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5% up to 12.5%. Over the past 7 days, Corey Julks's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.8-mph over the course of the season to 93.4-mph in recent games.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Abreu in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jose Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's game... and even better, Heaney has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Abreu will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Abreu's true offensive ability to be a .344, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .060 deviation between that mark and his actual .284 wOBA.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Josh Jung is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. Josh Jung will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. The Houston Astros outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of every team in action today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Marcus Semien ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Marcus Semien will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez today. Marcus Semien pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Marcus Semien tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 87th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Ezequiel Duran has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Ezequiel Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's game. Ezequiel Duran pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
The switch-hitting Jonah Heim will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Framber Valdez. Jonah Heim pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Adolis Garcia will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez today. Adolis Garcia pulls many of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mitch Garver in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Mitch Garver will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez in today's game. Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The Houston Astros outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of every team in action today.
Travis Jankowski has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.
Yordan Alvarez has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.
Robbie Grossman has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.
Nathaniel Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.
