Washington @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Josiah Gray will have the handedness advantage over Jordan Walker today. In the last week, Jordan Walker's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%. Jordan Walker's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 92.1-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 88.3-mph over the past week. Jordan Walker has been lucky this year, posting a .341 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .014 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 5th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Josiah Gray will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado in today's matchup. Today, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.9% rate (100th percentile). Nolan Arenado has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 8.9% seasonal rate to 20% in the last 7 days. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Nolan Arenado has had positive variance on his side this year. His .361 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .332.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeimer Candelario in the 75th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Jeimer Candelario has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.2% seasonal rate to 15.8% over the past 14 days.

Busch Stadium has the 2nd-deepest RF fences among all parks. CJ Abrams will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. CJ Abrams has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days. In the past week's worth of games, CJ Abrams's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.6%. CJ Abrams has been lucky this year, compiling a .308 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .295 — a .013 disparity.

Brendan Donovan has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan's launch angle in recent games (1.7° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 10.1° seasonal mark.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Dylan Carlson ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage today.

Homers are generally less common at stadiums with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all stadiums. Josiah Gray will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Goldschmidt today. Paul Goldschmidt has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 12.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last week. Paul Goldschmidt's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 93-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 63.2-mph in the last week's worth of games. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, falling from 12.8% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Josiah Gray in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Keibert Ruiz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In terms of his batting average, Keibert Ruiz has had some very poor luck this year. His .230 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .259.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josiah Gray in today's matchup.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Alex Call has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 4.9% seasonal rate to 13.3% over the last two weeks. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.6°, Alex Call has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 30.5° figure in the last two weeks. Despite posting a .284 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alex Call has been unlucky given the .035 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .319.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Ildemaro Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. By putting up a 2.14 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Ildemaro Vargas has shown impressive plate discipline, placing in the 76th percentile. Ranking in the 78th percentile, Ildemaro Vargas sits with a .266 batting average since the start of last season.

Dominic Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage against Jack Flaherty today. Dominic Smith has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.7% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 7 days.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage against Josiah Gray today. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Lane Thomas is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Lane Thomas has notched a .365 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today's game. Paul DeJong has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 93.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Corey Dickerson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's matchup.

Joey Meneses's batting average skill is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Meneses is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Over the last 7 days, Joey Meneses's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.1% up to 100%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Luis Garcia will hold the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.350) suggests that Luis Garcia has experienced some negative variance this year with his .298 actual wOBA.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the hottest weather of the day at 92°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Andrew Knizner will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Andrew Knizner has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 3.5% rate last season to 10.7% this year.