Washington @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Jake Irvin will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Walker in today's matchup. Jordan Walker has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph dropping to 90.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker's true offensive skill to be a .327, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .025 deviation between that mark and his actual .352 wOBA. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs), Jordan Walker and his 7.9% rank in the 1st percentile this year.

In today's game, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.7% rate (92nd percentile). Compared to his seasonal figure of 10.1°, Brendan Donovan has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.7°) over the last two weeks.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. CJ Abrams has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph to 90.9-mph in the last 14 days. CJ Abrams's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 33.6% to 39.6%.

In today's game, Joey Meneses is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.3% rate (92nd percentile). Joey Meneses will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Joey Meneses's launch angle lately (-1° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is significantly lower than his 8.4° seasonal figure. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 19.2% to 8.7%. Joey Meneses has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .284 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .251 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Lars Nootbaar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin today. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-largest outfield among all major league parks — generally bad for home runs. Jake Irvin will hold the platoon advantage against Paul Goldschmidt in today's game. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 16% to 12.8%. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, going from 12.8% on the season to 7.1% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Paul DeJong's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.3%.

This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Dominic Smith has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 92.7-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 90.4-mph.

This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Michael Chavis will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Matz in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Compared to last year, Michael Chavis has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 41% to 53.1% this season.

This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage today.

Stone Garrett has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Stone Garrett will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Matz in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Stone Garrett is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of St. Louis (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Willson Contreras has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 11.6% to 33.3%.

This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Riley Adams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Matz today. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Riley Adams's maximum exit velocity (an advanced metric to evaluate power) has been 115 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile.

Ildemaro Vargas is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The switch-hitting Ildemaro Vargas will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Steven Matz. Ildemaro Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Lane Thomas is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Lane Thomas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Matz in today's game. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Alex Call will hold the platoon advantage against Steven Matz today. Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Alex Call's speed has gotten better this season. His 28.38 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.83 ft/sec now. Alex Call has been unlucky this year, compiling a .282 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .318 — a .036 gap.

This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Irvin in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Alec Burleson will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.276) suggests that Alec Burleson has been unlucky this year with his .222 actual batting average.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. This contest is forecasted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 94.3-mph in the past two weeks. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 41% on the season to 51.7% in the last two weeks.

Luis Garcia has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.