Washington @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 5th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Nolan Arenado will have the handedness advantage against MacKenzie Gore today. Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 100th percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards the game's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado's launch angle this season (18.1°) is a considerable dropoff from his 21.7° angle last year. Nolan Arenado has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .283 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .250 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jordan Walker is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 24th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Busch Stadium has the 5th-most fair ground among all parks — generally bad for dingers. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for CJ Abrams in today's game. CJ Abrams has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week's worth of games. CJ Abrams's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, falling from 14.6% on the season to 0% over the last week.

Miles Mikolas will hold the platoon advantage over Joey Meneses in today's matchup. Joey Meneses has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will be challenged by the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Joey Meneses will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 19.2% to 8.7%. Joey Meneses has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .284 mark is inflated compared to his .251 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Luis Garcia is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season. Luis Garcia has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Garcia in today's matchup. Luis Garcia's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 93-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 90.9-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Last season, Luis Garcia had a launch angle of 13.2° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 8.5°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Carlson in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 10th-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.346) implies that Dylan Carlson has had some very poor luck this year with his .321 actual wOBA.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-largest outfield among all major league parks — generally bad for home runs.

Miles Mikolas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lane Thomas in today's matchup. Lane Thomas pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Lane Thomas will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Lane Thomas has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last week. In the past week, Lane Thomas's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.1%.

In today's game, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.7% rate (92nd percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 6th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Keibert Ruiz in today's game. Keibert Ruiz has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 7.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 14 days. Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 90.6-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 85-mph in the past two weeks. Over the past two weeks, Keibert Ruiz's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.4%.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 7th-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeimer Candelario in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate. Jeimer Candelario has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.2% seasonal rate to 13.6% in the last two weeks. Jeimer Candelario has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal figure of 92.2-mph.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 10th-worst among every team playing today. Paul DeJong will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Paul DeJong's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, going from 45.3% on the season to 63.6% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate today at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate. MacKenzie Gore will have the handedness advantage against Nolan Gorman in today's game. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 10th-worst among every team playing today. Nolan Gorman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate. Dominic Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Miles Mikolas today. Dominic Smith has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal figure of 90.4-mph.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12-mph in this contest, the best of the day for batters. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 7th-worst among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Luken Baker will hold that advantage in today's game.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate. Corey Dickerson will have the handedness advantage over Miles Mikolas in today's matchup.