Texas @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst field in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Trevor Williams will have the handedness advantage against Marcus Semien in today's matchup. Marcus Semien will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Marcus Semien's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 83.3-mph in the past 7 days. As it relates to his batting average, Marcus Semien has had positive variance on his side this year. His .273 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .257.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst field in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Trevor Williams will have the handedness advantage against Adolis Garcia in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Adolis Garcia today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Adolis Garcia's true offensive skill to be a .336, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .025 difference between that figure and his actual .361 wOBA.

Nationals Park projects as the #28 stadium in MLB for lefty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Corey Seager will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corey Seager's true offensive skill to be a .388, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .044 gap between that mark and his actual .432 wOBA.

Ezequiel Duran is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst field in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Trevor Williams will hold the platoon advantage against Ezequiel Duran in today's game. Ezequiel Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Ezequiel Duran has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.9% seasonal rate to 20% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst field in the majors for right-handed BABIP. In the past week's worth of games, Joey Meneses's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 19.2% to 7.5%. In the last week, Joey Meneses's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 7.5%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.248) provides evidence that Joey Meneses has had some very good luck this year with his .279 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst field in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Trevor Williams will hold the platoon advantage over Josh Jung today. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Josh Jung in today's matchup. Josh Jung has been lucky this year, notching a .349 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .018 disparity. As it relates to plate discipline, Josh Jung's skill is quite weak, sporting a 4.66 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 10th percentile.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. The switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Cody Bradford. Jeimer Candelario will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the past week, Jeimer Candelario's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 15.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's right field fences are the 9th-shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Leody Taveras's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 41.4% to 48.8%. Leody Taveras has recorded a .313 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 98th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Lane Thomas is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Lane Thomas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cody Bradford in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Lane Thomas will hold that advantage today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Jonah Heim pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. In the last week, Jonah Heim's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 97.8-mph lately. Last year, Jonah Heim had an average launch angle of 11.7° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 17.5°. Jonah Heim has notched a .278 batting average this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.270) provides evidence that Keibert Ruiz has experienced some negative variance this year with his .229 actual batting average.

In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's right field fences are the 9th-shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Dominic Smith will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Dominic Smith's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.5-mph over the course of the season to 97.3-mph lately.

In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's right field fences are the 9th-shallowest. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Hitters such as CJ Abrams with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cody Bradford who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. CJ Abrams will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. CJ Abrams has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last year's 89.3-mph EV.

Stone Garrett is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°. Stone Garrett will hold the platoon advantage against Cody Bradford in today's game. Stone Garrett will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Stone Garrett has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 8.2% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past week.

Robbie Grossman has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Nathaniel Lowe has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Riley Adams has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Ildemaro Vargas has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Travis Jankowski has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Luis Garcia has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.