Seattle @ Houston Picks & Props

Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Martin Maldonado will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Martin Maldonado has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 7.4% to 21.4%. In the last two weeks, Martin Maldonado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph recently. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.6°, Martin Maldonado has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 42.3° angle in the past week.

Jarred Kelenic is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Jarred Kelenic will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's game. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Jarred Kelenic is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever all game. Jarred Kelenic has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 96.2-mph in the past week's worth of games. Jarred Kelenic has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last season's 93.2-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last week, Alex Bregman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.9% up to 11.8%.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Luis Castillo will hold the platoon advantage over Mauricio Dubon today. In today's matchup, Mauricio Dubon is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (92nd percentile). Mauricio Dubon's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 87.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 84.1-mph in the last two weeks. Mauricio Dubon's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (6.3°) is significantly lower than his 10.6° figure last year.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Hunter Brown will have the handedness advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Julio Rodriguez in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal angle of 8.5°, Julio Rodriguez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.4°) in the last 14 days.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 17th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Kyle Tucker has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 91.8-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Yainer Diaz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week, Yainer Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.8% up to 25%. Over the past 7 days, Yainer Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Minute Maid Park. Jeremy Pena will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jeremy Pena has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 6.3% seasonal rate to 15.8% over the last two weeks. Jeremy Pena has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 87.8-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 20th-best hitter in the game when assessing his BABIP talent. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Minute Maid Park. Despite posting a .317 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Teoscar Hernandez has had bad variance on his side given the .033 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350. Sporting a .339 BABIP this year, Teoscar Hernandez finds himself in the 83rd percentile.

Jose Abreu's batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Abreu is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Abreu will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Jose Abreu's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7% up to 20%. Jose Abreu has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 92.9-mph in the past 14 days.

Batters such as Cal Raleigh with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Cal Raleigh has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89-mph figure. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Cal Raleigh has been unlucky this year. His .312 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .349.

Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Sporting a 1.64 K/BB rate this year, Jose Caballero has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 86th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.9°, Eugenio Suarez has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23.4° mark over the last two weeks. Eugenio Suarez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .309 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .030 discrepancy.

Corey Julks pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Corey Julks will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Corey Julks's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.6-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph in recent games. Over the past two weeks, Corey Julks's 61.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50%. Corey Julks is in the 94th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (50% rate this year).

Mike Ford will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Brown today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Mike Ford is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Mike Ford has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95-mph average to last year's 88.8-mph EV. Mike Ford has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 95-mph. In the past 7 days, Mike Ford's 50% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 28.6%.

J.P. Crawford has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Kolten Wong has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Chas McCormick has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Ty France has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.