St. Louis @ Miami Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Dylan Carlson ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). LoanDepot Park ranks as the #8 venue in baseball for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, rising from 46.3% on the season to 66.7% in the past week's worth of games. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Dylan Carlson has had some very poor luck this year. His .319 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .339.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. LoanDepot Park ranks as the #8 venue in baseball for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Lars Nootbaar will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez today. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nick Fortes will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past 14 days, Nick Fortes has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 23° compared to his seasonal mark of 8.4°. Despite posting a .257 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nick Fortes given the .056 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .313.

The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Over the past two weeks, Paul DeJong has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 24.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 18.8°.

LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Luis Arraez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences today. In the last 7 days, Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 88.8 mph to 86 mph. In the last 7 days, Luis Arraez's 50% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 58.6%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Willson Contreras has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 10.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last week. Willson Contreras has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.5-mph average.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jorge Soler ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Soler is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Jorge Soler will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jorge Soler has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.1-mph mark.

Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. LoanDepot Park ranks as the #8 venue in baseball for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jesus Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage over Jack Flaherty today. Jesus Sanchez will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Jesus Sanchez has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 13.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. LoanDepot Park ranks as the #8 venue in baseball for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's matchup.

LoanDepot Park ranks as the #8 venue in baseball for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.275) implies that Alec Burleson this year with his .220 actual batting average.

Paul Goldschmidt projects as the 13th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Among all parks, LoanDepot Park's CF fences are the 5th-shallowest. Paul Goldschmidt has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph average.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Garrett Cooper is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Garrett Cooper is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Garrett Cooper will hold that advantage today. Garrett Cooper's launch angle in recent games (27.2° in the last 7 days) is significantly higher than his 13.9° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. LoanDepot Park ranks as the #8 venue in baseball for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Brendan Donovan will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Brendan Donovan's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.7% up to 12.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Bryan De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Among all parks, LoanDepot Park's CF fences are the 5th-shallowest. Bryan De La Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jean Segura in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Jean Segura hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jean Segura will hold that advantage in today's game. Jean Segura has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 3.7% seasonal rate to 9.1% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jordan Walker has notched a .283 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jordan Walker has compiled a .349 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

Joey Wendle's BABIP talent is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). LoanDepot Park ranks as the #8 venue in baseball for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Joey Wendle will have the handedness advantage against Jack Flaherty today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Joey Wendle will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Joey Wendle's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 95.4-mph of late.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #8 field in MLB for boosting BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.3°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 27.8° angle over the past two weeks. Nolan Arenado has notched a .353 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 80th percentile. Nolan Arenado has recorded a .280 batting average this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile.

Dane Myers has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Tommy Edman has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.