Cincinnati @ Washington Picks & Props

Nationals Park grades out as the #28 stadium in the majors for righty base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Joey Meneses has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 5.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past week. Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 19.2% to 7.6%. In the last week's worth of games, Joey Meneses's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 7.8%. Joey Meneses has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .281 figure is considerably higher than his .249 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Keibert Ruiz in the 8th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Nationals Park grades out as the #28 stadium in the majors for righty base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Over the past two weeks, Keibert Ruiz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Keibert Ruiz's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 91.1 mph to 87.1 mph. Grading out in the 5th percentile, Keibert Ruiz sits with a .226 BABIP this year.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ildemaro Vargas is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game. Nationals Park grades out as the #28 stadium in the majors for righty base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ildemaro Vargas's launch angle this season (2°) is considerably lower than his 7.3° figure last season. Ildemaro Vargas has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .270 mark is quite a bit higher than his .222 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nationals Park grades out as the #28 stadium in the majors for righty base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In terms of his batting average, Lane Thomas has had positive variance on his side this year. His .304 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .263.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jonathan India ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan India is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Jonathan India will hold the platoon advantage over MacKenzie Gore today. Over the last week, Jonathan India's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.4% up to 22.2%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jeimer Candelario ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. The switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Brandon Williamson. Jeimer Candelario will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Matt McLain will have the handedness advantage over MacKenzie Gore today. Matt McLain has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Newman in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Kevin Newman is penciled in 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Kevin Newman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore today. Kevin Newman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 45.2% to 50.9%.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against MacKenzie Gore. Elly De La Cruz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.5-mph mark.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Nick Senzel will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's matchup.

Among all parks, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so CJ Abrams has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Extreme groundball bats like CJ Abrams are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Williamson. CJ Abrams will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Among all parks, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 9th-shallowest. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Will Benson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.6-mph recently. Over the last 14 days, Will Benson's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Tyler Stephenson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's matchup. Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. In the last 7 days, Tyler Stephenson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 97.9-mph lately.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Riley Adams will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Williamson today. Riley Adams will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Riley Adams's maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to study power) has been 115 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Spencer Steer is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Spencer Steer will hold the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore today. Spencer Steer has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 13.8% in the last 14 days.

Stone Garrett is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Stone Garrett will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Williamson today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Stone Garrett will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Stone Garrett's 91.6-mph average exit velocity is among the best in the majors since the start of last season: 91st percentile.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 90°. Luke Maile will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's matchup. The Barrel% of Luke Maile has significantly improved, with an increase from 5.4% last year to 13.3% this year. Luke Maile has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph figure. Compared to last season, Luke Maile has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.9% to 20% this season.

Michael Chavis has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

TJ Friedl has gone over 0.5 in 10 of his last 10 games.

Joey Votto has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Luis Garcia has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.