Seattle @ Houston Picks & Props

Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to plate discipline, Jose Caballero's ability is quite good, putting up a 1.54 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 90th percentile.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. George Kirby will have the handedness advantage over Mauricio Dubon in today's game. In today's matchup, Mauricio Dubon is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (89th percentile). In the past two weeks, Mauricio Dubon's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 87.3 mph to 84.1 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 3rd-best batter in the majors when estimating his BABIP ability. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. The 2nd-shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Julio Rodriguez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 95.3-mph in the last two weeks. Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, posting a .320 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .374 — a .054 discrepancy.

Jeremy Pena's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The 2nd-shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 8th-weakest among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage today. Jeremy Pena has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 5.9% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the past 14 days.

Jarred Kelenic is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Framber Valdez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jarred Kelenic today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarred Kelenic has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jarred Kelenic has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.4-mph mark. This season, Jarred Kelenic has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.8 mph compared to last year's 93.2 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 20th-best hitter in the league as it relates to his BABIP skill. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Despite posting a .319 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Teoscar Hernandez has experienced some negative variance given the .032 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .351. Sporting a .344 BABIP this year, Teoscar Hernandez grades out in the 85th percentile.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 8th-weakest among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage in today's game. Martin Maldonado has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.4% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past two weeks. Martin Maldonado has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.9-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 90.7-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Eugenio Suarez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.1-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph EV. Eugenio Suarez's launch angle recently (25.4° over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 19.3° seasonal figure. Eugenio Suarez has been unlucky this year, notching a .298 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .042 disparity.

The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 8th-weakest among all the teams in action today. Chas McCormick will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Chas McCormick's launch angle this year (17°) is significantly higher than his 12.6° figure last year. In the last two weeks, Chas McCormick's 55% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.1%. Chas McCormick has recorded a .363 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 17th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against George Kirby in today's game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 8th-weakest among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Framber Valdez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mike Ford today. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Ford stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Mike Ford has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 95.6-mph in the past week. Mike Ford has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95-mph average to last season's 88.8-mph mark. Mike Ford's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, rising from 29.8% on the season to 58.3% in the last week's worth of games.

Corey Julks pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 8th-weakest among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Corey Julks will hold that advantage today. Corey Julks has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 92.7-mph in the past 7 days. Corey Julks's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, increasing from 49.7% on the season to 60.7% over the past two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 8th-weakest among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 8th-weakest among all the teams in action today. Yainer Diaz will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Yainer Diaz has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 97.6-mph average over the last week to his seasonal average of 94.8-mph.

Jose Abreu's batting average skill is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Abreu is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 8th-weakest among all the teams in action today. Jose Abreu will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the past 7 days, Jose Abreu's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 20%.

Cal Raleigh has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 88.9-mph mark. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Cal Raleigh has had some very poor luck this year. His .308 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .345.

Jose Altuve has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Ty France has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

J.P. Crawford has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.