Los Angeles @ San Diego Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Trent Grisham ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Trent Grisham will have the handedness advantage against Shohei Ohtani today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Trent Grisham will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The Barrel% of Trent Grisham has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.7% last year to 16% this year.

Andrew Velazquez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.219) implies that Andrew Velazquez has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .198 actual batting average.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 5th-best hitter in the majors. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Juan Soto will have the handedness advantage over Shohei Ohtani in today's matchup. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage today.

Mike Moustakas is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Mike Moustakas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Musgrove in today's game. Mike Moustakas's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 37.8% to 49.5%. Mike Moustakas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, increasing from 49.5% on the season to 58.3% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Xander Bogaerts will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. As it relates to plate discipline, Xander Bogaerts's skill is quite strong, posting a 1.69 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 84th percentile.

In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Over the past week, Hunter Renfroe's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 13.3%. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.4°, Hunter Renfroe has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 28.2° angle over the past week.

Luis Rengifo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the past 14 days, Luis Rengifo's 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.1%. Despite posting a .284 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Luis Rengifo has had bad variance on his side given the .027 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage over Shohei Ohtani in today's matchup. Jake Cronenworth hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jake Cronenworth will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. In terms of his batting average, Jake Cronenworth has had some very poor luck this year. His .213 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .241.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Manny Machado is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Manny Machado's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph of late.

In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Gary Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Gary Sanchez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph in recent games. Gary Sanchez's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (19°) is a considerable increase over his 14° mark last season.

This season, David Fletcher has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 83.5 mph compared to last year's 81.4 mph mark. David Fletcher has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 85.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 83.5-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Taylor Ward is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Taylor Ward hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Taylor Ward has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 94.4-mph over the past 7 days. Taylor Ward has been unlucky this year, posting a .307 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .362 — a .055 gap.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Anthony Rendon ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Anthony Rendon is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Anthony Rendon's launch angle of late (11.5° over the last week) is a considerable dropoff from his 15.3° seasonal figure. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.354) suggests that Anthony Rendon has been unlucky this year with his .316 actual wOBA.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.239) implies that Chad Wallach has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .197 actual batting average. Chad Wallach's 95.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to assess power) is in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.

In the league, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the shallowest. Matt Thaiss will hold the platoon advantage over Joe Musgrove today. As it relates to plate discipline, Matt Thaiss's talent is quite good, posting a 1.91 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 75th percentile. Matt Thaiss has compiled a .335 BABIP since the start of last season, placing in the 84th percentile.

Rougned Odor will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shohei Ohtani in today's game. Rougned Odor will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Rougned Odor's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 90.2-mph now compared to just 87.8-mph then. Rougned Odor's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 36% to 46.7%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.342) may lead us to conclude that Rougned Odor has had bad variance on his side this year with his .301 actual wOBA.

Matt Carpenter has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Shohei Ohtani has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.