Cincinnati @ Washington Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Derek Hill has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Derek Hill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the past week, Derek Hill's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 30.8% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.238) may lead us to conclude that Derek Hill has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .205 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst ballpark in baseball for RHB base hits. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Elly De La Cruz in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Elly De La Cruz has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power). Elly De La Cruz has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .349 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .279 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst ballpark in baseball for RHB base hits. Brett Kennedy will have the handedness advantage over Lane Thomas in today's game. Despite posting a .368 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Lane Thomas has been very fortunate given the .040 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst ballpark in baseball for RHB base hits. Brett Kennedy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Meneses today. In the last week, Joey Meneses's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%. From last season to this one, Joey Meneses's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 19.2% to 7.9%. In the last week, Joey Meneses's 0% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 46.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst ballpark in baseball for RHB base hits. Spencer Steer will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Despite posting a .379 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Spencer Steer has been lucky given the .046 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jeimer Candelario will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jeimer Candelario's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph recently. Jeimer Candelario's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 18.9% on the season to 36.4% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Matt McLain will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's game. Matt McLain has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Matt McLain has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13.4% seasonal rate to 22.6% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jonathan India is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Jonathan India will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Corbin in today's game. Jonathan India has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 91.3-mph in the past 7 days. Jonathan India has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last season's 90.1-mph EV.

Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Keibert Ruiz's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.4%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.277) suggests that Keibert Ruiz has been unlucky this year with his .233 actual batting average. When it comes to plate discipline, Keibert Ruiz's skill is quite strong, putting up a 1.51 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Tyler Stephenson will have the handedness advantage against Patrick Corbin today. Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Tyler Stephenson has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 93.8-mph. Tyler Stephenson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 14.6% on the season to 30% over the past week.

Dominic Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest right field dimensions in the league. Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage against Brett Kennedy in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Smith stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Dominic Smith will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest right field dimensions in the league. CJ Abrams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brett Kennedy in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so CJ Abrams has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. CJ Abrams will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Nick Senzel will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Corbin in today's game.

Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest right field dimensions in the league. Corey Dickerson will have the handedness advantage over Brett Kennedy today. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Dickerson can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Corey Dickerson will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Curt Casali will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Corbin today. Curt Casali has displayed good plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 75th percentile with a 2.34 K/BB rate.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Riley Adams will hold that advantage today. When it comes to his batting average, Riley Adams has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .204 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .220. Checking in at the 95th percentile, the hardest ball Riley Adams has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 115 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

Kevin Newman has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Luis Garcia has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Joey Votto has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

TJ Friedl has gone over 0.5 in 10 of his last 10 games.