Boston @ Toronto Picks & Props

The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Hamilton can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Kevin Kiermaier will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Whitlock in today's game. Kevin Kiermaier hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Kevin Kiermaier will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Kevin Kiermaier has posted a .333 BABIP this year, placing in the 79th percentile.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.312) provides evidence that Rob Refsnyder has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .288 actual batting average. Sporting a .383 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Rob Refsnyder is positioned in the 98th percentile for hitting ability.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Alex Verdugo is projected as the 20th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Alex Verdugo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's game. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alex Verdugo has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Alex Verdugo hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's game. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Rafael Devers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. Daulton Varsho will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Whitlock in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this season (17.8°) is a significant increase over his 14.5° mark last year. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.327) provides evidence that Daulton Varsho has experienced some negative variance this year with his .298 actual wOBA.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. Triston Casas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Triston Casas can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Triston Casas has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.7-mph average.

Brandon Belt is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. Brandon Belt will hold the platoon advantage against Garrett Whitlock in today's game. Brandon Belt will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Over the past 7 days, Brandon Belt's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.5% up to 16.7%.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Jarren Duran is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jarren Duran hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Matt Chapman is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage today. The Barrel% of Matt Chapman has significantly improved, with an increase from 12.9% last year to 18.1% this season.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. Compared to his seasonal figure of 16.4°, Connor Wong has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (13°) in the last two weeks.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Justin Turner ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Justin Turner is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Justin Turner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Justin Turner has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 93.2-mph in the last 7 days. In terms of plate discipline, Justin Turner's talent is quite good, putting up a 1.71 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 82nd percentile.

Christian Arroyo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Christian Arroyo's 70% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.8%.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. Kike Hernandez has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 4% seasonal rate to 9.1% over the last week.

Whit Merrifield's batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Whit Merrifield will hold that advantage today. Whit Merrifield has recorded a .284 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Whit Merrifield has put up a .292 batting average this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in Rogers Centre. Alejandro Kirk will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alejandro Kirk's true offensive talent to be a .337, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .037 disparity between that mark and his actual .300 wOBA. Posting a 1.18 K/BB rate this year, Alejandro Kirk has displayed strong plate discipline, placing in the 97th percentile.

Masataka Yoshida has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Danny Jansen has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

George Springer has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.