Miami @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins. In the last 7 days, Justin Turner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Nick Fortes pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the last 7 days, Nick Fortes's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.8% up to 12.5%. In the past week, Nick Fortes's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.4%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Fortes's true offensive skill to be a .310, indicating that he this year given the .042 deviation between that figure and his actual .268 wOBA.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the majors for lefty batting average. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences among all major league stadiums. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup.

Jorge Soler projects as the 19th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jorge Soler is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Jorge Soler's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 13.8% to 22%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Connor Wong will have the handedness advantage over Jesus Luzardo today... and even better, Luzardo has a huge platoon split. Connor Wong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage today. Connor Wong's launch angle lately (55° in the last week's worth of games) is considerably higher than his 16.7° seasonal mark.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the majors for lefty batting average. Masataka Yoshida has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Masataka Yoshida will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Masataka Yoshida has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.2% seasonal rate to 12.9% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the majors for lefty batting average. Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello today. Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In terms of his batting average, Jesus Sanchez has been unlucky this year. His .240 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .279.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jean Segura in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Jean Segura is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Jean Segura hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .234 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jean Segura has suffered from bad luck given the .080 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

Yuli Gurriel is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in the league. Yuli Gurriel has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 90.7-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 86.6-mph. Yuli Gurriel's launch angle this season (18.4°) is significantly higher than his 14.3° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Wendle in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the majors for lefty batting average. Joey Wendle will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game. Joey Wendle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Joey Wendle has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98-mph average in the past week to his seasonal mark of 93.1-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the majors for lefty batting average. Rafael Devers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Rafael Devers will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Jesus Luzardo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alex Verdugo today... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Luzardo's huge platoon split. Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins. Alex Verdugo has been cold recently, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) in the past two weeks. Alex Verdugo has been lucky this year, notching a .367 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .033 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in the league. Rob Refsnyder will have the handedness advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today's game... and moreover, Luzardo has a huge platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Kike Hernandez will have the handedness advantage over Jesus Luzardo in today's game... and even better, Luzardo has a huge platoon split. Kike Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.1% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Kike Hernandez will hold that advantage in today's game. Kike Hernandez has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 87.8-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Arroyo in the 78th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in the league. Christian Arroyo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo today... and even better, Luzardo has a huge platoon split. Christian Arroyo will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in the game for RHB batting average. Adam Duvall will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today's matchup... and moreover, Luzardo has a huge platoon split. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Adam Duvall will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jacob Stallings has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Garrett Cooper has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Bryan De La Cruz has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Jon Berti has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Luis Arraez has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.