Miami @ Boston Picks & Props

This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. David Hamilton has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. David Hamilton will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Fenway Park projects as the #2 venue in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Connor Wong will have the handedness advantage against Braxton Garrett today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

Justin Turner's launch angle this season (14.3°) is significantly worse than his 18.6° mark last year. Justin Turner has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .353 rate is a good deal higher than his .335 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jean Segura is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup. Jean Segura will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Murphy in today's game... and even better, Murphy has a large platoon split. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Jean Segura will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Jean Segura's 3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 8th percentile this year.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 venue in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Nick Fortes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the last week, Nick Fortes's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.1% up to 10%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Wendle in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Chris Murphy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Wendle today... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Murphy's large platoon split. Joey Wendle has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Rafael Devers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Garrett Cooper is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Garrett Cooper is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Fenway Park projects as the #2 venue in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jorge Soler is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 venue in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (76%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Chris Murphy will have the handedness advantage against Jesus Sanchez in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Murphy's large platoon split. Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jesus Sanchez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.3-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 96.2-mph.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 venue in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Kike Hernandez will have the handedness advantage against Braxton Garrett today. Kike Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Arroyo in the 78th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Fenway Park projects as the #2 venue in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Fenway Park projects as the #2 venue in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Homers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest in MLB. This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.

Braxton Garrett will have the handedness advantage over Alex Verdugo in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo's launch angle of late (4° over the last 7 days) is considerably worse than his 8.5° seasonal mark. In the past two weeks, Alex Verdugo has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability. Alex Verdugo has been lucky this year, notching a .366 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .336 — a .030 deviation.

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 venue in the league for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). This game is predicted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (80%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Adam Duvall will hold the platoon advantage over Braxton Garrett in today's game.

Luis Arraez has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Bryan De La Cruz has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.