New York @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Max Scherzer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mauricio Dubon in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and but may find it hard to clear baseball's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 87.4-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 81.7-mph in the last 7 days.

Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for pitching. Hunter Brown will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Starling Marte in today's game. Starling Marte has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Starling Marte usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Martin Maldonado has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 104.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 88-mph. Martin Maldonado has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .178 BA is a good deal lower than his .195 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Altuve will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jose Altuve's launch angle lately (4° in the last week) is significantly worse than his 7.4° seasonal angle.

THE BAT X projects Brandon Nimmo in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Brandon Nimmo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever all game. Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

THE BAT X projects Brett Baty in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Brett Baty will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown today. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Brett Baty is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch all game. Brett Baty has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Brett Baty's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 47.4% on the season to 56.5% over the last two weeks.

THE BAT X projects Francisco Alvarez in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Francisco Alvarez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 20.2% on the season to 37.5% in the last 7 days. Francisco Alvarez has compiled a .350 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 75th percentile.

Chas McCormick will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Chas McCormick has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 86.1-mph average. Chas McCormick's launch angle lately (34.7° in the last week) is significantly higher than his 15.6° seasonal angle.

THE BAT X projects Tommy Pham in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Tommy Pham has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 16.7% seasonal rate to 30.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Tommy Pham has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last season's 92.1-mph mark. Tommy Pham has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 94.1-mph average. Tommy Pham has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .338 mark is a good deal lower than his .387 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Jeremy Pena will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

THE BAT X projects Francisco Lindor in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. Francisco Lindor has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.9-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph EV. Francisco Lindor's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (20.2° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 15° seasonal angle. Francisco Lindor's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 14.3% to 21.5%.

Daniel Vogelbach will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Brown in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Daniel Vogelbach is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game. Daniel Vogelbach has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last year's 89.3-mph figure. Daniel Vogelbach has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 90th percentile with a 1.48 K/BB rate.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 18th-best batter in the majors, via THE BAT X. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against Max Scherzer today. Kyle Tucker will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 46.2% on the season to 63.4% in the last two weeks.

THE BAT X projects Yainer Diaz in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Extreme flyball hitters like Yainer Diaz are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Scherzer. Yainer Diaz will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Yainer Diaz's 94.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to measure power) ranks in the 80th percentile this year.

THE BAT X projects Jeff McNeil in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Jeff McNeil is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's matchup. The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Jeff McNeil is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game. Jeff McNeil has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 89.5-mph.

THE BAT X projects Mark Canha in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Mark Canha has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 88.2-mph figure. Mark Canha's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 14.6% to 20.4%. Mark Canha's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 20.4% on the season to 37.5% in the past 7 days.

THE BAT X projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Alex Bregman will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Alex Bregman has been unlucky this year, notching a .314 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .359 — a .045 gap.

THE BAT X projects Jose Abreu in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jose Abreu is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Jose Abreu will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Jose Abreu has been unlucky this year, putting up a .269 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .071 discrepancy.

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.