Toronto @ Texas Picks & Props

Whit Merrifield is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup. Globe Life Field grades out as the #25 stadium in the game for right-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. Globe Life Field has the 6th-deepest centerfield fences in the majors. Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Whit Merrifield has been lucky this year, compiling a .337 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .317 — a .020 discrepancy.

Globe Life Field grades out as the #25 stadium in the game for right-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. Globe Life Field has the 6th-deepest centerfield fences in the majors. Kevin Gausman will hold the platoon advantage against Marcus Semien in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best of the day. Marcus Semien's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 88.4-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 83.1-mph over the past 7 days.

THE BAT X projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Kevin Kiermaier has notched a .353 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 77th percentile. Kevin Kiermaier has notched a .292 batting average this year, ranking in the 90th percentile.

Robbie Grossman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Robbie Grossman has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 7.1% seasonal rate to 20% in the last 14 days. Robbie Grossman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (28.4° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 15.3° seasonal mark.

Globe Life Field grades out as the #25 stadium in the game for right-handed BABIP, per THE BAT projection system. Globe Life Field has the 6th-deepest centerfield fences in the majors. George Springer will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. George Springer's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (7.9°) is a significant dropoff from his 11.5° mark last year.

THE BAT X projects Leody Taveras in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Leody Taveras will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Leody Taveras has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark. Leody Taveras's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 41.4% to 46.9%. Leody Taveras's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, increasing from 46.9% on the season to 64.7% in the last week's worth of games.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Daulton Varsho's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 43.6% on the season to 70% in the last week. Daulton Varsho has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .228 figure is deflated compared to his .252 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Corey Seager projects as the 12th-best batter in the majors, according to THE BAT X. Corey Seager is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Corey Seager will hold the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in today's game. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Corey Seager will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

THE BAT X projects Alejandro Kirk in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Alejandro Kirk will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Martin Perez today. Alejandro Kirk's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, going from 42.6% on the season to 54.8% over the last 14 days. Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky this year, compiling a .306 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .343 — a .037 discrepancy.

Jonah Heim will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Jonah Heim's launch angle lately (14° over the last week) is quite a bit lower than his 17.7° seasonal angle. Jonah Heim's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (18.2°) is a considerable increase over his 11.7° angle last year. Jonah Heim has posted a .277 batting average this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

THE BAT X projects Josh Jung in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Josh Jung is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Josh Jung will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Josh Jung ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (21% rate this year). Josh Jung has posted a .352 BABIP this year, grading out in the 89th percentile.

THE BAT X projects Mitch Garver in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Mitch Garver will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

THE BAT X projects Adolis Garcia in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Adolis Garcia will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Adolis Garcia has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 15.4% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games. Adolis Garcia's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 15.5% to 18.7%.

THE BAT X projects Matt Chapman in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Matt Chapman is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Matt Chapman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Martin Perez in today's game. Matt Chapman has made significant strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 12.9% rate last year to 18.9% this year. Matt Chapman's launch angle recently (26.8° in the last week) is a significant increase over his 16.9° seasonal mark.

Travis Jankowski will hold the platoon advantage over Kevin Gausman today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Travis Jankowski stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Travis Jankowski will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Travis Jankowski has exhibited strong plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 92nd percentile with a 1.62 K/BB rate.

Santiago Espinal will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Martin Perez in today's matchup. Santiago Espinal has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .258 figure is deflated compared to his .270 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Santiago Espinal has shown strong plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 83rd percentile with a 1.94 K/BB rate.

Danny Jansen will have the handedness advantage against Martin Perez today. Danny Jansen's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (20.4°) is a significant increase over his 15° figure last year. Danny Jansen has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .197 figure is deflated compared to his .246 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Danny Jansen's 12.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) is in the 87th percentile since the start of last season.

Nathaniel Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.