Colorado @ Boston Picks & Props

THE BAT X projects Adam Duvall in the 5th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the best on the slate today. Adam Duvall's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.2-mph seasonal average has dropped to 72.5-mph in the past 7 days. Adam Duvall has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .234 BA is quite a bit higher than his .215 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Nolan Jones in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Nolan Jones has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in MLB. Nolan Jones will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Whitlock in today's game.

Christian Arroyo is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the best on the slate today. Christian Arroyo has exhibited bad plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 15th percentile with a 4.45 K/BB rate.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Mike Moustakas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Whitlock in today's game. Mike Moustakas pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Mike Moustakas has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 7.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week's worth of games. Mike Moustakas has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph figure.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the best on the slate today. Rob Refsnyder's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 94.2-mph average last season has lowered to 89-mph. Rob Refsnyder's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 59.1% to 51.5%. Rob Refsnyder has been lucky this year, compiling a .358 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .336 — a .022 deviation.

THE BAT X projects Masataka Yoshida as the 19th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average ability. Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Masataka Yoshida has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Masataka Yoshida will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Ryan McMahon is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Ryan McMahon will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Whitlock today. Ryan McMahon has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Ryan McMahon has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.1-mph average to last season's 94.6-mph figure.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Garrett Whitlock will hold the platoon advantage against Ezequiel Tovar in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best on the slate. Ezequiel Tovar will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Ezequiel Tovar's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.6-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 85.6-mph in the past week.

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for right-handed batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Austin Wynns has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Jurickson Profar pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Jurickson Profar has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 88-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 85.3-mph. Jurickson Profar's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, increasing from 43.2% on the season to 66.7% over the past 7 days.

THE BAT X projects Harold Castro in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Harold Castro will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Whitlock in today's game. Harold Castro has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Harold Castro's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls recently (26° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 12.9° seasonal figure.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Austin Gomber will hold the platoon advantage against Rafael Devers in today's game. The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the best on the slate today. Rafael Devers has posted a .248 BABIP this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Triston Casas will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Triston Casas has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 13.8% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the past week. Triston Casas has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 92.2-mph figure.

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for right-handed batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Kike Hernandez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Austin Gomber in today's matchup. Kike Hernandez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for right-handed batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Elehuris Montero hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Elias Diaz is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for right-handed batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Elias Diaz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 90.8-mph. Elias Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 41.2% to 49.7%.

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for right-handed batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in MLB. Randal Grichuk's launch angle this year (18.4°) is significantly better than his 8.3° angle last year. Randal Grichuk's launch angle recently (26.3° in the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 18.4° seasonal figure. Randal Grichuk has put up a .281 batting average this year, ranking in the 84th percentile.

Fenway Park profiles as the #2 venue in MLB for right-handed batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Connor Wong will have the handedness advantage against Austin Gomber today. Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Connor Wong has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12.5% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the last 14 days.

Alex Verdugo has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Justin Turner has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.