Washington @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense. Hunter Brown will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Meneses today. Joey Meneses has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Joey Meneses will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Joey Meneses's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 90.4-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 83.8-mph in the past week.

Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Jeremy Pena has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 7 days. Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 90.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 86.4-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, decreasing from 14.8% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.

Corey Julks will hold the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's game... and moreover, Corbin has a large platoon split. Corey Julks pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.1% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst of the day. Corey Julks will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Corey Julks has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 89.4-mph.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense. Jose Abreu hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Jose Abreu's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 92.3-mph figure last season has fallen to 88.2-mph. Jose Abreu's launch angle recently (-1.4° over the past 7 days) is significantly lower than his 9° seasonal angle. Jose Abreu's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 16.2% to 12.4%.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Jeimer Candelario has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 92-mph.

Chas McCormick will hold the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's game... and even more favorably, Corbin has a large platoon split. The Washington Nationals outfield defense grades out as the 7th-worst on the slate today. Chas McCormick will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Lane Thomas is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. Lane Thomas has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 7.3% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the last week. Lane Thomas has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 87.7-mph average. Lane Thomas's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, going from 43.6% on the season to 53.8% over the last week. Lane Thomas has notched a .356 BABIP this year, grading out in the 90th percentile.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense. Jose Altuve has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs recently, lifting balls between 23° and 34° just 8.3% of the time in the past 14 days. Jose Altuve has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .392 mark is quite a bit higher than his .351 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Jose Altuve's 86.1-mph average exit velocity is one of the worst in the majors since the start of last season: 10th percentile.

Martin Maldonado will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's game... and even more favorably, Corbin has a large platoon split. Martin Maldonado pulls many of his flyballs (32.9% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals outfield defense grades out as the 7th-worst on the slate today. Martin Maldonado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Hunter Brown. Keibert Ruiz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.1-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 88.4-mph average. Keibert Ruiz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, rising from 17.8% on the season to 25% over the past two weeks. Keibert Ruiz has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .240 BA is a fair amount lower than his .273 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Keibert Ruiz has displayed good plate discipline this year, ranking in the 94th percentile with a 1.23 K/BB rate.

THE BAT X projects Yainer Diaz in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Yainer Diaz will have the handedness advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's matchup... and even better, Corbin has a large platoon split. The Washington Nationals outfield defense grades out as the 7th-worst on the slate today. Yainer Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Yainer Diaz has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 93.6-mph.

THE BAT X projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Alex Bregman will hold the platoon advantage against Patrick Corbin in today's game... and even better, Corbin has a large platoon split. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals outfield defense grades out as the 7th-worst on the slate today.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense. Patrick Corbin will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Tucker today... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Corbin's large platoon split. Kyle Tucker hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and and will have to hit them out towards the game's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Kyle Tucker has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.1% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Kyle Tucker's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (11.1°) is significantly worse than his 19.2° mark last year.

Dominic Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's matchup. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Smith stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Dominic Smith's launch angle recently (25.2° in the past week's worth of games) is considerably better than his 13° seasonal angle. Dominic Smith has shown favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile with a 1.65 K/BB rate.

Corey Dickerson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences in the league — generally good for homers. Corey Dickerson will hold the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's matchup. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Dickerson can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Corey Dickerson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 41.7% to 48.8%.

CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Brown in today's matchup. The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so CJ Abrams has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Alex Call has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .275 rate is considerably lower than his .305 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Luis Garcia has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.