LIVE Top 3rd May 13
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AT&T Sportsnet, NESN

Colorado @ Boston props

Fenway Park

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Nolan Jones Total Hits Props • Colorado

Nolan Jones
N. Jones
right outfield RF • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

THE BAT X projects Nolan Jones in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Nolan Jones has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in the league. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%.

Nolan Jones

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

THE BAT X projects Nolan Jones in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Nolan Jones has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in the league. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%.

Ryan McMahon Total Hits Props • Colorado

Ryan McMahon
R. McMahon
third base 3B • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Ryan McMahon will hold the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. Ryan McMahon has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

Ryan McMahon

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Ryan McMahon will hold the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. Ryan McMahon has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

Triston Casas Total Hits Props • Boston

Triston Casas
T. Casas
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage over Chase Anderson in today's game. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Triston Casas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Triston Casas

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage over Chase Anderson in today's game. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Triston Casas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Mike Moustakas Total Hits Props • Colorado

Mike Moustakas
M. Moustakas
first base 1B • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Mike Moustakas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford today. Mike Moustakas pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Mike Moustakas has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week's worth of games.

Mike Moustakas

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Mike Moustakas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford today. Mike Moustakas pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Mike Moustakas has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week's worth of games.

Rafael Devers Total Hits Props • Boston

Rafael Devers
R. Devers
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.2
Best Odds
Projection Rating

THE BAT X projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chase Anderson today.

Rafael Devers

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.2
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.2

THE BAT X projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chase Anderson today.

Ezequiel Tovar Total Hits Props • Colorado

Ezequiel Tovar
E. Tovar
shortstop SS • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

THE BAT X projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Ezequiel Tovar has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Ezequiel Tovar has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Ezequiel Tovar

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

THE BAT X projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Ezequiel Tovar has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Ezequiel Tovar has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Harold Castro Total Hits Props • Colorado

Harold Castro
H. Castro
left outfield LF • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

THE BAT X projects Harold Castro in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Harold Castro will have the handedness advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. Harold Castro has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Harold Castro

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

THE BAT X projects Harold Castro in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Harold Castro will have the handedness advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. Harold Castro has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Elias Diaz Total Hits Props • Colorado

Elias Diaz
E. Diaz
catcher C • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Elias Diaz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Elias Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 41.2% to 49.7%.

Elias Diaz

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Elias Diaz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Elias Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 41.2% to 49.7%.

Elehuris Montero Total Hits Props • Colorado

Elehuris Montero
E. Montero
third base 3B • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Fenway Park ranks as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Elehuris Montero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Elehuris Montero

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Fenway Park ranks as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Elehuris Montero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Jurickson Profar Total Hits Props • Colorado

Jurickson Profar
J. Profar
left outfield LF • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Jurickson Profar pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jurickson Profar has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 88-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal mark of 85.3-mph.

Jurickson Profar

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Jurickson Profar pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jurickson Profar has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 88-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal mark of 85.3-mph.

Randal Grichuk Total Hits Props • Colorado

Randal Grichuk
R. Grichuk
right outfield RF • Colorado
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Randal Grichuk's launch angle this season (18.4°) is significantly better than his 8.3° angle last season. Randal Grichuk's launch angle of late (26.3° in the last 14 days) is considerably higher than his 18.4° seasonal figure.

Randal Grichuk

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Randal Grichuk's launch angle this season (18.4°) is significantly better than his 8.3° angle last season. Randal Grichuk's launch angle of late (26.3° in the last 14 days) is considerably higher than his 18.4° seasonal figure.

Connor Wong Total Hits Props • Boston

Connor Wong
C. Wong
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Fenway Park ranks as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Connor Wong will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Connor Wong has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12.5% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the past two weeks. Connor Wong has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV.

Connor Wong

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Fenway Park ranks as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Connor Wong will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Connor Wong has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12.5% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the past two weeks. Connor Wong has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV.

Enrique Hernandez Total Hits Props • Boston

Enrique Hernandez
E. Hernandez
shortstop SS • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Fenway Park ranks as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Kike Hernandez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Enrique Hernandez

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Fenway Park ranks as the #2 stadium in the league for righty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all parks. Kike Hernandez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Christian Arroyo Total Hits Props • Boston

Christian Arroyo
C. Arroyo
third base 3B • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

THE BAT X projects Christian Arroyo in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Extreme flyball bats like Christian Arroyo usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chase Anderson.

Christian Arroyo

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

THE BAT X projects Christian Arroyo in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Extreme flyball bats like Christian Arroyo usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chase Anderson.

Adam Duvall Total Hits Props • Boston

Adam Duvall
A. Duvall
left outfield LF • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Adam Duvall is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Adam Duvall will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Adam Duvall

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Adam Duvall is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Adam Duvall will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Reese McGuire Total Hits Props • Boston

Reese McGuire
R. McGuire
catcher C • Boston
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in the league. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Chase Anderson in today's matchup. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Reese McGuire

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions in the league. Humid weather has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the highest humidity of the day at 84%. Reese McGuire will hold the platoon advantage over Chase Anderson in today's matchup. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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