Minnesota @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field profiles as the #25 park in the game for righty batting average, via THE BAT projection system. Louie Varland will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past two weeks. Yandy Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, going from 12% on the season to 6.3% over the past 14 days. Yandy Diaz has been lucky this year, compiling a .420 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .374 — a .046 disparity.

THE BAT X projects Jorge Polanco in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jorge Polanco is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jorge Polanco has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 15.7% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the past 7 days. Jorge Polanco's launch angle of late (26° over the last 7 days) is a considerable increase over his 19.9° seasonal mark.

THE BAT X projects Wander Franco as the 5th-best hitter in MLB as it relates to his batting average talent. Wander Franco is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Wander Franco will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Wander Franco has shown favorable plate discipline this year, grading out in the 90th percentile with a 1.44 K/BB rate. Wander Franco has notched a .314 batting average this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.

THE BAT X projects Carlos Correa in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Carlos Correa is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Carlos Correa has been unlucky this year, putting up a .296 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .350 — a .054 disparity. Carlos Correa's 12.5% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) grades out in the 83rd percentile this year. Carlos Correa's maximum exit velocity (a reliable stat to evaluate power) has been 113.9 mph this year, grading out in the 91st percentile.

THE BAT X projects Byron Buxton in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Byron Buxton has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.7-mph. Byron Buxton's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (26.4° over the past 14 days) is significantly better than his 20.2° seasonal figure.

THE BAT X projects Trevor Larnach in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Trevor Larnach is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball. Trevor Larnach will have the handedness advantage over Zach Eflin in today's game. Trevor Larnach has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last season's 93.1-mph figure.

THE BAT X projects Jose Siri in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (32.9% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Siri will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jose Siri has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 6.3% rate last year to 18.9% this season. Jose Siri's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 15.8% to 25.7%.

THE BAT X projects Willi Castro in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Tropicana Field has the shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball. Willi Castro's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 17.3% to 24.3%. Willi Castro has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .246 rate is considerably lower than his .270 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Royce Lewis is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Tropicana Field has the 4th-shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball. A consistent launch angle is a measure of good hitting, and Royce Lewis has been very consistent with his of late, putting up a 33.1° launch angle standard deviation in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Vidal Brujan pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Vidal Brujan will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Vidal Brujan has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .218 figure is quite a bit lower than his .254 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Alex Kirilloff in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Alex Kirilloff is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Tropicana Field has the shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball. Alex Kirilloff will have the handedness advantage over Zach Eflin today. Alex Kirilloff's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 38.2% to 54.4%.

THE BAT X projects Randy Arozarena in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Randy Arozarena will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Randy Arozarena has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.2-mph average. Randy Arozarena has put up a .378 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 94th percentile for offensive ability (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Harold Ramirez as the 13th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average skill. Harold Ramirez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Harold Ramirez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Harold Ramirez's launch angle this year (8.7°) is significantly higher than his 4.8° figure last year. Harold Ramirez has compiled a .370 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.

Christian Vazquez has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Christian Vazquez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 47% to 53.9%. Christian Vazquez has posted a .271 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 81st percentile (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Christian Vazquez has compiled a .267 batting average since the start of last season, grading out in the 79th percentile.

THE BAT X projects Manuel Margot in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst of all teams on the slate today. Manuel Margot will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Manuel Margot has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .300 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .333 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Manuel Margot has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 79th percentile with a 1.74 K/BB rate.

THE BAT X projects Donovan Solano in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Donovan Solano is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Donovan Solano has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 5.1% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the last week's worth of games. Donovan Solano has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.4-mph figure. Donovan Solano's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 53% to 58.6%.

Tropicana Field has the shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball. Taylor Walls will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Taylor Walls has exhibited good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 75th percentile with a 1.86 K/BB rate.

Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage over Zach Eflin in today's matchup. Max Kepler pulls a lot of his flyballs (32.9% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Max Kepler's launch angle in recent games (24.7° over the past 14 days) is considerably higher than his 14.6° seasonal angle. Max Kepler has been unlucky this year, notching a .281 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .049 deviation. Max Kepler has shown favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 90th percentile with a 1.74 K/BB rate.

THE BAT X projects Luke Raley in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Luke Raley has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage against Louie Varland today. Luke Raley will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Luke Raley's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 18.5% on the season to 33.3% in the past week.

Michael A. Taylor has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Christian Bethancourt has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.