Toronto @ Boston Picks & Props

As one of the lowest in the majors, Fenway Park's elevation, being near sea-level, typically results in reduced offensive output. This game is expected to experience the 4th-lowest temperature on the slate at 51°, which is strongly associated with decreased offense (and increased strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for mound aces. Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against George Springer in today's matchup. George Springer has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week.

According to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park ranks as the 2th park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage against Alek Manoah today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Triston Casas can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Triston Casas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his BABIP captalent, Kevin Kiermaier is projected in the 76th percentile by THE BAT X. According to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park ranks as the 2th park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Kevin Kiermaier will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Kevin Kiermaier hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Masataka Yoshida is projected as the 18th-best batter in the game by THE BAT, based on his batting average skill. Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. According to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park ranks as the 2th park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage against Alek Manoah in today's matchup. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Masataka Yoshida has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

THE BAT X projects Jarren Duran in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. For 85% of the time this season, Jarren Duran has mainly batted in the back-half of the batting order, but for this matchup, he is listed in the 5th spot in the batting order. According to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park ranks as the 2th park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Jarren Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alek Manoah today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

According to THE BAT X, it is projected that Rafael Devers will rank as the 19th-best hitter in the game. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. According to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park ranks as the 2th park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alek Manoah today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

When assessing Alejandro Kirk's batting average capability, THE BAT X places him in the 95th percentile. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Alejandro Kirk has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Statcast data interpreted by THE BAT X shows Alejandro Kirk ranking in the 86th percentile with a .350 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) for since the start of last season. Alejandro Kirk has notched a .284 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 89th percentile (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Daulton Varsho is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. According to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park ranks as the 2th park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today. Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Daulton Varsho has been unlucky this year, putting up a .282 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .047 disparity.

When assessing his batting average talent, Whit Merrifield is ranked in the 90th percentile by THE BAT X projects. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Whit Merrifield has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Compared to last season, Whit Merrifield has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for BABIP optimization, increasing his percentage from 42.5% to 52.2% this season. Within the past two weeks of games, Whit Merrifield has raised his percentage of hitting the ball at a launch angle that optimizes for BABIPs, from 52.2% on the season to 63%.

According to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park ranks as the 2th park in the majors for left-handed batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest RF dimensions in the league. Enmanuel Valdez will hold the platoon advantage over Alek Manoah today. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Enmanuel Valdez stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Enmanuel Valdez will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

As one of the lowest in the majors, Fenway Park's elevation, being near sea-level, typically results in reduced offensive output. The weatherman calls for the 3rd-best pitching weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for mound aces. The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today. Alex Verdugo's launch angle in recent games (2.8° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is considerably worse than his 7.1° seasonal figure.

THE BAT X projects Matt Chapman in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Matt Chapman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Matt Chapman has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 12.9% rate last season to 32.4% this season.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Santiago Espinal is ranked in the 79th percentile by THE BAT X projects. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. In the league, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Santiago Espinal has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .260 BA is deflated compared to his .275 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Having a 2.02 K/BB rate, Santiago Espinal demonstrated impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile.

THE BAT X projects Connor Wong in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. In the league, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Connor Wong will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. In recent times, Connor Wong has shown significant progress in his Barrel% as he has elevated his seasonal rate of 10.3% to 16.7% in the games played over the past week.

When assessing Christian Arroyo's batting average capability, THE BAT X places him in the 79th percentile. As per THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among MLB parks for right-handed batting average. In the league, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Christian Arroyo will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. With a recent surge of games, Christian Arroyo's Barrel% has significantly improved, as his seasonal rate of 2% rose to 14.3%.

THE BAT X projects Justin Turner in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Justin Turner is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Justin Turner hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Justin Turner will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, according to THE BAT projection system. Kike Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Kike Hernandez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Danny Jansen has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.