Toronto @ Boston Picks & Props

When it comes to his batting average skill, Alejandro Kirk is ranked in the 96th percentile by THE BAT X projects. As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. Alejandro Kirk has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Alejandro Kirk has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .356 figure is a good deal lower than his .373 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). Alejandro Kirk has put up a .288 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 90th percentile (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Masataka Yoshida is projected as the 15th-best batter in the game by THE BAT, based on his batting average talent. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, per THE BAT projection system. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Masataka Yoshida has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Masataka Yoshida has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today. Masataka Yoshida will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Daulton Varsho will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Houck has a large platoon split. Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Daulton Varsho has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .263 figure is a good deal lower than his .397 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to worse offense. Less offense (and more Ks) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and this game is projected to have the 2nd-coldest weather among all games with a temperature of 51°. Yusei Kikuchi will hold the platoon advantage over Alex Verdugo today... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Kikuchi's huge platoon split.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, per THE BAT projection system. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Raimel Tapia can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Raimel Tapia has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Raimel Tapia will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Raimel Tapia has compiled a .276 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 80th percentile (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

THE BAT X projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Kevin Kiermaier will have the handedness advantage against Tanner Houck today... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split. Kevin Kiermaier hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Kevin Kiermaier has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .238 mark is quite a bit lower than his .259 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

Kike Hernandez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. Kike Hernandez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi today... and the cherry on top, Kikuchi has a huge platoon split. Kike Hernandez pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Kike Hernandez will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When estimating his BABIP capability, Rob Refsnyder is projected in the 92nd percentile by THE BAT X. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. In the league, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Rob Refsnyder will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and the cherry on top, Kikuchi has a huge platoon split.

THE BAT X projects Jarren Duran in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, per THE BAT projection system. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Jarren Duran hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. The BAT X interprets Statcast data to place Danny Jansen in the 87th percentile with a .345 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) posted since the start of last season. Danny Jansen's 13.1% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) ranks in the 92nd percentile since the start of last season.

THE BAT X projections rank Rafael Devers as the 18th-best hitter in the game. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, per THE BAT projection system. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Rafael Devers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Estimating Whit Merrifield's batting average ability, THE BAT X projects him in the 90th percentile. As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. Whit Merrifield has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Whit Merrifield has notched a .272 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 77th percentile (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data). When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, Whit Merrifield's performance grades out in the 94th percentile. This launch angle range has a tendency to optimize home runs, as reflected in Cruz's 19.2% rate since the start of last season.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Among all parks, Fenway Park ranks as having the shallowest RF dimensions. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters. Cavan Biggio will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Houck today... and even more favorably, Houck has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball batters like Cavan Biggio tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

In terms of his batting average ability, Christian Arroyo ranks in the 79th percentile according to THE BAT X projects. As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. In the league, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Christian Arroyo will have the handedness advantage over Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and even better, Kikuchi has a huge platoon split. Christian Arroyo will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

THE BAT X projects Justin Turner in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Justin Turner is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. Justin Turner will hold the platoon advantage over Yusei Kikuchi in today's game... and even better, Kikuchi has a huge platoon split. Justin Turner hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average, per THE BAT projection system. Among all parks, Fenway Park ranks as having the shallowest RF dimensions. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters. Brandon Belt will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and even better, Houck has a large platoon split. Extreme flyball batters like Brandon Belt usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

THE BAT X projects Matt Chapman in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. Matt Chapman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Matt Chapman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

Connor Wong's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by THE BAT X assessment. As according to THE BAT projection system, Fenway Park is placed at the 2nd position among the league ballparks for right-handed batting average. In the league, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Connor Wong will hold the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi today... and even more favorably, Kikuchi has a huge platoon split. Connor Wong will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Yusei Kikuchi has gone over 5.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

George Springer has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.