United States vs Netherlands Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Rematch of 2019 Final

The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup will see a flashback to the last edition of the tournament on Wednesday, when the United States and the Netherlands get together in a rematch of the 2019 final. Here are our free betting picks for the pivotal matchup.  

With both teams having earned three points from their opening matches in Group E, it’s safe to say Wednesday’s match will be a tense affair. Winning the group is of vital importance for both nations, as the runner-up will likely face Sweden, the third-ranked country in the world, in the Round of 16. 

The United States defeated Vietnam 3-0 but fell far short of their expected goal mark as they missed numerous chances, including a penalty. The Netherlands edged Portugal in a 1-0 match that saw them dominate in nearly every facet of the game, but they too will be annoyed with their lackluster finishing. 

We dive into how you should bet on this fixture in our United States vs. Netherlands picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 26.  

United States vs Netherlands odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on July 25, 2023.

United States vs Netherlands picks and predictions

Over the past year, the United States played five matches against teams that are of similar quality to the Dutch. They failed to keep a clean sheet against Brazil, Germany, Spain, or England in those matches. What those matches also had in common was that only once - against Spain - did both teams fail to find the back of the net. Our best bet on Wednesday is for both teams to score once again.  

There were questions coming into the Women’s World Cup about how the United States would fare in defense without captain and centerback Becky Sauerbrunn. Manager Vlatko Andonovski opted not to field a standard defensive partnership and instead deputized midfielder Julie Ertz in central defense alongside Naomi Girma.

In the end, few answers were found as Vietnam failed to test the American defense in any way. They managed fewer than 20 touches in the final third and failed to manage a single shot over the course of 90 minutes. While it was good to see the United States force more than 30 turnovers and register 28 shots, the match didn’t allow for Andonovski to learn what weaknesses might be there to exploit. 

If there’s a team built to exploit those weaknesses, it’s the Dutch. While they don’t have Vivianne Miedema available to score goals, they don’t lack options in attack - nor do they lack speed in their attack.  

With the way the United States play, there will likely be space for the Dutch to run behind fullbacks Emily Fox and Crystal Dunn. Even if the Netherlands revert back to their standard 4-3-3, that pace will allow them to get opportunities on goal. 

On the other end, the Netherlands also weren’t tested by Portugal, as they conceded a meager two shots in the contest. The firepower possessed by the Americans is well noted and they’ll be focused on putting more than 25% of their efforts on target in this one.  

I project this match to end in a 1-1 stalemate, but a 2-1 end result isn’t far off. Therefore, while I’ll personally be playing half a unit on the 1-1 exact score at +600, I recommend taking both teams to score as the safer play.

My best bet: Both teams to score: Yes (-110 at bet365) 

United States vs Netherlands same-game parlay

Both teams to score

Danielle van de Donk Over 0.5 shots

Sophia Smith Over 0.5 shots on goal

Under 5

+333 at bet365

Our same-game parlay for Wednesday’s match pairs up both teams to score with two of the players who will be attempting to do so. Much of what the Netherlands want to do in attack will run through Danielle van de Donk.

The Lyon midfielder is a pivotal playmaker for the Oranje, and her two shots were both put on target last match. She’s not afraid to shoot from anywhere and I like her to get at least one effort off against the United States.

Sophia Smith’s World Cup debut was a memorable one, scoring two goals from five shots. Both of her efforts on goal went in. The reigning NWSL MVP is capable of scoring anytime. Take her to put at least one shot on frame during proceedings.

Finally, while I believe this will be a low-scoring affair, these two teams have combined for a few 2-2 and 3-1 score lines over the past few years. Therefore, let’s play it safe and take Under 5 goals, which provides a decent boost to the payout and gives us a very strong parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

United States vs Netherlands moneyline and Over/Under analysis

As favorites to win the Women’s World Cup, it should come as no surprise that the USA are favored to win the match on the 3-way line. Priced at -140 or higher, the Americans are expected to win with a draw being second-choice and a Dutch win a distant underdog. 

American forward Trinity Rodman suffered a knock early in the match with Vietnam but should be good to go on Wednesday. The Dutch will be without forward Lineth Beerensteyn, as the striker’s injury leaves her doubtful for the match but not severe enough to miss the tournament. Aside from those two players, everyone else should be fully ready to go.  

There is real value here for those brave enough to go against the favorites. The Dutch are an extremely talented side and the United States showed, against Vietnam, they may not be as dominant as they have been in years past. With neither team wanting to lose this match, I love the draw at the price it’s being offered at.  

The 1-1 scoreline I’m projecting plays perfectly with the total, as the standard line of 2.5 is being bet heavily towards the Under. At a price between -145 and -165, people are expecting a low-scoring affair.  

That said, the past five meetings between these nations have seen at least four goals on three different occasions. That includes their meeting in the 2021 Olympics, which ended in a 2-2 stalemate.  

The Over has been coming through in matches the Americans have played against top opposition in the past year. In their 12 matches against World Cup participants, including Vietnam, the Over has gone 9-3.  

There’s value in the Over, but not enough for me to wager on it. I’m staying away from the total in this one, as I expect a low-scoring affair and don’t want to pay the hefty price to play it.  

United States vs Netherlands game info

United States vs Netherlands weather

While the match will be played on Wednesday in North America, the players will be treated to chilly temperatures on Thursday in New Zealand. Not only will they be dealing with temperatures in the mid-50s, but there’s a good chance of rain and winds will be between 15-25 mph.

United States vs Netherlands key injuries

United States: Trinity Rodman F (Probable).
Netherlands: Lineth Beerensteyn F (Doubtful). 

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