With four points from their opening two matches, Norway has quietly emerged as one of the tournament's early risers. That leaves Senegal walking a tightrope, as anything less than a positive result could leave the Lions of Teranga staring at an early exit.
My Norway vs. Senegal predictions and World Cup picks break down a pivotal Group I showdown and explain why I expect the points to be shared at MetLife Stadium on June 22.
TOP PICK
Who will win Norway vs Senegal: Draw (+250)
With some sharper finishing, Senegal could have provided a bigger scare for France last week. Though their end product remains a concern for me, I’m banking on a solid response on Monday against a dangerous Norway squad.
The draw offers good value here, and it’s playable up to +220. Both teams are comfortable in a physical scrap, and the Lions of Teranga’s 4-2-3-1 formation will provide a numerical advantage in midfield to limit the service to Haaland.
While Norway’s attackers flexed their muscles during qualifying, it’s worth noting they’ve recorded just one clean sheet in their past eight games, so I expect Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson to be heard from at MetLife Stadium, with some exciting attacking options off the bench.
A point would likely suit Norway just fine, with a resounding opening win under their belts, and it would keep Senegal in the hunt, too. Both teams tied their final World Cup warm-up game, and a share of the spoils would set up an exciting ending in Group I.
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Norway vs Senegal Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-111)
Set aside Norway’s free-scoring start to the tournament, because this fixture should have a different tempo — particularly given the high stakes for Senegal.
A loss could spell the end of the World Cup for the Lions of Teranga, who finished with an xG of 0.53 against France, despite a 47% share of possession.
Equally, this will be a big test for the Norwegian midfield, with Senegal’s pace and power capable of slowing down the sweeping attacks that fed Haaland against Iraq. Plus, center back Kalidou Koulibaly will relish the bruising battle with Norway’s No. 9.
It took some moments of magic for France to break through Pape Thiaw’s defensive game plan last Tuesday, and a similar approach here will put the onus on less-experienced Norway playmakers to step up. We don’t yet have a clear answer to the question ‘if not Haaland, then who?’
These teams feel well matched, with just 10 spots separating the nations in the FIFA rankings, and a cagey finale could be on the cards if the scores are level heading into the closing stages.
Norway vs Senegal goal scorer pick: Erling Haaland (-110)
This is the easy pick, really. The Iraq defenders may still be having nightmares about Haaland’s ruthless finishing, and I see him adding to his goal tally at MetLife Stadium. Whether it’s tap-ins, headers, or even penalties, he’s going to be a factor in this Group I matchup.
While I see Senegal finding tactical tweaks to prevent Haaland from running riot in the same way, the Manchester City striker racked up 16 goals during Norway’s qualifying campaign, and he’s my No. 1 pick to break the deadlock in New Jersey.
There were also some shaky moments for the Senegal defense when France moved the ball with speed last week, so the threat of Antonio Nusa and Martin Odegaard in wide areas could be the key to unlocking Haaland.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Norway vs Senegal projected lineup
Norway (4-4-2): Nyland; Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Wolfe; Odegaard, Berge, Aursnes, Nusa; Haaland, Sorloth
Senegal (4-2-3-1): Mendy; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; I. Gueye, P. Gueye; Sarr, Camara, Mane; Jackson
Norway vs Senegal injuries
Norway: David Moller Wolfe LB (Probable)
Senegal: No injuries to report.
Norway vs Senegal weather
Expect rainy conditions at MetLife Stadium, with temperatures dropping below 70 degrees by kickoff.
Norway vs Senegal odds
 Norway |
 Senegal |
|
|---|---|---|
| +127 | Moneyline | +222 |
| +270 | Draw | +270 |
| Over 2.5 (-110) | Total | Under 2.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Norway vs Senegal
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Monday, June 22, 2026 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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