After a 1-0 win at St. Mary's last Tuesday, Newcastle United are 90 minutes away from returning to Wembley, and a cup final, for the first time since 1999.
Standing in their way is a Southampton side that has thus far failed to climb out of a relegation scrap in the league under Nathan Jones. They have, however, upset City in this League Cup run and now have a towering task ahead at St. James' Park.
Ahead of kickoff under the lights on Tuesday night, check out our free EFL Cup picks and predictions for Newcastle United vs. Southampton.
Newcastle vs Southampton odds
|Over 2.5 (-106)||Total||Under 2.5 (-118)|
Odds courtesy of bet365 on January 27, 2023.
Newcastle vs Southampton picks and predictions
Though it took the introduction of Alexander Isak in the second half to turn the tide, Newcastle left the South Coast deserved winners. While Joelinton's skied shot stands out as the missed chance, there were certainly multiple. Eddie Howe's side out-created the Saints 3.11 to 1.16 in expected goals, and consistently created dangerous chances working down the flank and cutting the ball back.
After a successful jaunt down south, Newcastle are well positioned to repeat their winning ways at St. James' Park.
Not only do the Magpies have the benefit of being at home for the return leg but they'll have the benefit of rest, too. A happy byproduct of their third-round exit in the FA Cup is a full week off between the first and second legs of this semifinal. Southampton, on the other hand, have a fourth-round match against Blackpool on Saturday, at home, before making the long trek to the Northeast.
The edge Newcastle's incredible support provides can't be understated, especially in comparison to Southampton's difficult road form:
|Team||Points per 90||Goal difference||Expected goals difference per 90|
|Newcastle United (home)||2.20||+13||+1.23|
Newcastle are a great bet to win here but that's reflected in their -223 odds on the moneyline. Thankfully, this is a team that simply doesn't concede and so taking them to win to nil gives us great value.
Nick Pope and his reliable back four last conceded in the league on November 6, and they kept clean sheets in four EFL Cup games during that span, too. Their 11 goals conceded is the least in the Prem, while their 17.7 expected goals against is the third-lowest mark.
As Southampton found out Tuesday, when Pope made two outstanding stops, in the rare instances in which Newcastle's defense is breached, the 6-foot-7 goalkeeper stands tall.
Newcastle United are going to Wembley.
My best bet: Newcastle to win to nil (+120 at bet365)
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Newcastle vs Southampton side analysis
I believe Newcastle to win to nil to be the best value, as far as a side is concerned, on the board. The other few options aren't great for one reason or another.
At +280, a draw may appeal to some with the notion that it would be enough to see Newcastle through to Wembley. That in itself is true but so is the relentlessness of this Howe side. They're going to be going for the throat of the Saints from the first whistle. And against a full-steam Newcastle, Southampton aren't nearly good enough to get a result.
On the flip side, +107 on Newcastle -1.5 could be similarly tempting but that's putting some faith in an attack that's grown cold to score multiple times. Since a 3-0 win over Leicester on Boxing Day, they've scored just five goals across seven matches — with three of those five coming against League One's Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester's woeful defense in the quarterfinal.
Isak, and the return of Allan Saint-Maximin, gives Newcastle additional threats they need but as long as Callum Wilson appears a shell of his typical self, I am not confident in them scoring multiple goals.
Newcastle vs Southampton Over/Under analysis
I've already outlined my expectation that Newcastle will win and keep a clean sheet, so there are a couple of markets we can dip into along those lines.
The first, and it's an obvious one, is the Under 2.5. With the tremendous stability of their defense, the Under is a near-auto hit when Newcastle's involved — at least until Wilson rediscovers his form.
The second — it'll shock you — is Nick Pope to keep a clean sheet at -120. The former Burnley keeper has more clean sheets (12) than goals conceded (11) in a Toon shirt, and Southampton's woeful attack — which averages 0.85 goals and 0.98 xG per 90 in the league — won't trouble him.
Newcastle vs Southampton game info
|Location:||St. James' Park, Newcastle, England|
|Date:||Tuesday, January 31, 2023|
|Time:||12:00 p.m. ET|
Newcastle vs Southampton key injuries
Newcastle: Jonjo Shelvey CM (Out), Emil Krafth RB (Out), Matt Targett LB (Out).
Southampton: Tino Livramento RB (Out), Armel Bella-Kotchap CB (Out), Juan Larios FB (Out), Theo Walcott FWR (Questionable), Alex McCarthy GK (Questionable), Duje Caleta-Car CB (Out).
Newcastle vs Southampton weather
A clear night is forecast on Tyneside Tuesday, with no rain expected. At kickoff, temperatures are expected to be around 45 degrees Fahrenheit.