MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Will Both Teams Find the Twine?

With league play about to take a month off for the inaugural Leagues Cup with Liga MX teams, the top players in MLS will once again get together to take on a European power as their All-Stars face off with Arsenal on Wednesday night.

After playing against the Liga MX All-Stars each of the past two seasons, it’s a return to facing some of the best teams in Europe on an annual basis, as they’ve done in 15 of the last 17 All-Star competitions. A rematch of the 2016 meeting, Arsenal will hope to repeat with another win, as they walked out 2-1 victors. To do so would give them their first preseason win this year, after a pair of 1-1 draws.

With lots of subs and tactics thrown out the window a bit, these All-Star exhibitions can be a bit tricky to navigate in terms of finding betting value. Thankfully we’re here to help navigate the MLS odds with our MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 19.

MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal best odds

MLS All-Stars		Arsenal
+390	Moneyline	-240
+360	Draw	+360
Over 3.5 (-112)	Total	Under 3.5 (-124)

Odds courtesy of BetRivers on July 18, 2023.

MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal picks and predictions

Back in the day when the Eastern team played the Western team in what was an all-MLS affair, the All-Star game would tend to see some extremely high scores. In fact, five of the first six All-Star showdowns saw at least seven goals scored, with four of those seeing nine or more.

But since switching to the All-Stars vs European format, things have been a bit less chaotic. Instead of having two sides with players not familiar with one another, you now have a side that knows their teammates against a side that doesn’t necessarily have a tactical setup. That’s led to tighter matches, with the European team having to defend against what they don’t know and the MLS players often defending against their opponent’s B-team for a fair amount of the evening.

As such, it’s led to some closely-contested fixtures over the past decade or so. Since losing 4-0 to Manchester United in the 2011 game, just twice has the match ended with either team winning by more than a single goal — a 3-0 win for Atletico Madrid in 2019, and a 3-1 Roma victory in 2013.

In addition, only the Atletico Madrid victory saw either side fail to score a goal. Their clean sheet is the only one in the past 10 MLS All-Star games, and one of only two in the past 14. But not only have the matches been close, they’ve stayed relatively low-scoring. The past eight All-Star games have seen three or fewer goals scored, in part because halftime tends to see a whole slew of new players on both sides.

That’s why my money is on a low-scoring match that should see both teams in contention for a result at the end. As of Tuesday morning only a couple books are offering odds on the game, but BetRivers has a terrific same-game parlay that you can cash in on. At +300, you have implied odds of 25% that both teams find the back of the net with three or fewer goals scored. 

I’ll happily take that price given the way these matches tend to play out historically, and with Arsenal likely preferring to see how their bigger names perform at the weekend against Manchester United thus not leaving them out too long on Wednesday night. Add in the possibility of weather delays, and you’ve got a match that may not be very free-flowing. 

My best bet: Both teams to score Yes and Under 3.5 goals (+300 at BetRivers)

MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal side analysis

As the bigger European name with serious star power, Arsenal are favored to win the match at anywhere between -190 and -240 on the 3-way line, with the All-Stars third choice priced as high as +480, and the draw priced as high as +390. Declan Rice and Jurrien Timber are expected to make their debuts at some point, but the big names should be on the pitch for at least a half hour.

The MLS will have to contend with the likes of Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, and Bukayo Saka, while Thomas Partey, Leandro Trossard, and Martin Odegaard are all likely out. At the other end, the MLS lineup will have some serious firepower to call upon, with 2021 league MVP Carles Gil pulling the strings in behind. He’s coming off a two-assist performance at the weekend, giving him five assists and four goals in his last eight matches.

It’s tough to give out a pick on the moneyline considering we have no idea who will play together for either side, or for how long. As such, I always recommend avoiding the 3-way line in friendlies such as these, because winning isn’t usually very important to some managers — not as much as getting younger players experience and analyzing their squads. 

MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal Over/Under analysis

We’ve discussed the Under 3.5 already as part of our parlay, and that number is the main one for the total in this match instead of the typical 2.5 goal line. The Under is favored slightly at the books offering it, which makes sense given the history of this fixture and the nature of Arsenal’s first two friendlies in which a total of two goals have come in each.

The MLS All-Star team has quite a few players capable of putting the ball in the net, but they also have some solid goalkeepers at the back who will rotate out every half hour. Arsenal will likely not play goalkeeper Matt Turner due to fatigue, but Aaron Ramsdale will take his place at the back, and Arsenal’s main defense will do a solid job while in there. It’s when they rotate that they’ll likely concede, as they struggled down the stretch last season without William Saliba at the back.

I expect a low-scoring first half if Arsenal runs out their preferred XI, and a few goals in the second half. But with the unfamiliarity of many players on the MLS side, it won’t be a situation where they pour it on against the younger and less experienced Arsenal team out there for the second 45. 

MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal game info

MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal key injuries

MLS All-Stars: None.
Arsenal: Thomas Partey M (Out), Martin Odegaard M (Doubtful), Leandro Trossard M (Doubtful).

MLS All-Stars vs Arsenal weather

Those at Audi Field on Wednesday evening will be treated to less than ideal weather conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s at kickoff, but rain will be a threat with the chance of thunderstorms sitting above 50%. Lightning would delay the match, and obviously impact play.

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