LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes Picks and Predictions: May 20

We’re about a month away from the midway point of the MLS regular season, and Saturday’s matchup between LAFC and the San Jose Earthquakes will help shape how the Western Conference shakes out.

LAFC sit just one point back of conference leaders Seattle, but with two matches in hand they can easily reclaim first place. The defending MLS Cup winners have been busy juggling league matches and CONCACAF Champions League fixtures, and this will be their last chance to pick up points in league play until mid-June. 

The visitors are still in search of their first away win of the campaign, as they fell last weekend to the other Los Angeles squad. Their 2-1 defeat in the California Clasico continued a long spell of away miscues, and their inability to secure road points is seeing them slowly slipping down the table. With Dallas and Seattle on the horizon, they’ll want to get a result to maintain their spot.

Can the Earthquakes finally break through on the road, or will LAFC maintain their top points-per-match start in the West? Let’s dive into our LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes betting picks and preview for Saturday, May 20. 

LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes best odds

LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes picks and predictions

With a price at just under even money, my best bet of LAFC to be leading at halftime is one that I can’t pass up. 

The home side is heavily favored to win the match, as we will break down further later in this preview. Despite missing some big names like Giorgio Chiellini and Kellyn Acosta to injury, this LAFC team is just as dangerous as they were a season ago. Carlos Vela and Denis Bouanga lead a dangerous attack that has scored 21 goals through 11 matches, and Steve Cherundolo’s side has conceded just nine times while tasting defeat only once. 

While their away form hasn’t been anything to write home about, they’ve been a force at Banc of California Stadium. Their 1-1 draw with Kansas City on Wednesday night saw Bouanga find the back of the net for the 10th time already this campaign, only to have a goal seven minutes later cancel it out and force a share of the spoils. Sporting KC has been on a bit of a rebound over the past two weeks, so the result wasn’t the shock it would’ve been a month ago.

But the draw did end LAFC’s run of first-half wins at home this season. Last year, I made a significant profit betting on this team running rampant after halftime, but it appears this season they prefer to take care of business before the halftime whistle. They’ve scored first in all five of their home matches, and all those openers have come in the first 45 minutes. In fact, the Sporting goal was the only one through five home MLS matches they’ve allowed in the first half.

San Jose has trailed at halftime in four of their seven away fixtures in all competitions, and were fortunate not to be behind last weekend against LA Galaxy. They’ve scored just two first-half goals of their own, and now travel to a venue where they’ve trailed at halftime in four of their last five visits, conceding nine first-half goals in that span.

The Earthquakes are struggling to defend on the road this season, with 13 goals conceded in six MLS matches. LAFC are looking to avenge a 2-1 defeat away to the Earthquakes just two weeks ago, and they’ve outscored their five opponents 13-4 at home thus far this season. I expect them to jump all over the visitors from the opening whistle, and that should lead to a best bet cash at halftime. 

My best bet: LAFC first-half moneyline (-105 at FanDuel)

LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes side analysis

The best price of -250 for an LAFC win shows just how heavily favored they are over the Earthquakes. The underdogs are paying +600 for an outright win, with the draw at a hefty +375 price.

LAFC come into this match having won five of the last six meetings at home, and having won four of their five MLS fixtures there this campaign. They’ve managed clean sheets against Austin and New England, the second-best team in the Eastern Conference. Overall, they’ve won six of their 11 league fixtures with just one defeat.

The jury is still out on whether San Jose are a legit playoff contender. A season after finishing dead last in the Western Conference, new manager Luchi Gonzalez has them off to a solid start. But just two of their 18 points have come away from home, as they’ve lost four of their six away tilts. That includes a 3-1 loss to Real Salt Lake, who currently sit fourth-bottom in the MLS table.  

There’s no reason to believe the Earthquake are going to pull off the shocker, but obviously playing the money line isn’t very feasible given the juice. Our first half best bet is your most profitable way into the money line market, but if you want to wager on the full-time result, I’d recommend LAFC covering the 1.5-goal spread at plus-odds.

LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes Over/Under analysis

There could be goals galore in this match, which the public agrees with. The Total of 2.5 has been bet up to -160, in part because it continues to hit in San Jose’s matches. It took injury time at the weekend against the LA Galaxy, with two goals scored after the 90th minute pushing the total up to three goals. That was the fifth Over in San Jose’s six MLS away fixtures this season, and their ninth in their 12 MLS matches overall.

LAFC has also seen a decent amount of Overs in league play, with seven of their 11 hitting the 2.5 mark. At home, only their 1-1 draw last weekend failed to eclipse the standard total. But when these two teams do battle, fireworks ensue. Their last six meetings at Banc of California Stadium have featured three or more goals, as have 11 of their last 12 overall.

LAFC will have too much firepower for a San Jose side missing two starting defenders and struggling to prevent teams from scoring away from home. The Asian Handicap of Over 3.0 goals would be my preferred way into the total market, or I’d find a way to parlay the Over 2.5 rather than laying the juice. 

LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes game info

LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes key injuries

LAFC: Giorgio Chiellini D (Out), Jesus Murillo D (Out), Kellyn Acosta M (Doubtful). 
San Jose Earthquakes: Nathan D (Out), Carlos Akapo D (Out). 

LAFC vs San Jose Earthquakes weather

It’ll be a gorgeous evening in Los Angeles, with Saturday’s kickoff seeing temperatures in the mid-60s. There’s no rain expected at all, and a light breeze will see minimal impact on the action. 

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