Juventus vs AC Milan Picks and Predictions: Juve Won't Keep Up in Opening Half

For the first time in 20 years, American fans will be treated to one of the most bitter rivalries in Europe when Juventus face AC Milan in a club friendly on Thursday night.

While it might not be an official match, there should be plenty of passion and desire as there always is when these two meet on the pitch.

This match should see both teams looking to strike early, and my Juventus vs. AC Milan betting picks love Milan's chances to do so. Check out why below! 

Juventus vs AC Milan best odds

Juventus		AC Milan
+150	Moneyline	+150
+240	Draw	+240
Over 2.5 (-125)	Total	Under 2.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on July 26, 2023.

Juventus vs AC Milan picks and predictions

A stomach virus decimated Barcelona’s locker room this past weekend, robbing Juventus of their opening preseason fixture. That’s a key reason behind our best bet for Thursday night’s friendly against Milan.

The Old Lady is in a state of flux at the moment. They’re preparing for life outside of Europe’s biggest club competition, as a 10-point penalty last campaign sees them playing in the UEFA Conference League this season. That’s a loss of prestige and a hit to the bottom line.

As such, they’ve seen a fair number of players leaving and haven’t fully been able to replace them in the transfer market. Angel di Maria and Juan Cuadrado have already departed, and star striker Dusan Vlahovic has one foot out the door already. That’s in addition to captain Leonardo Bonucci likely parting ways with the club. 

While American winger Timothy Weah has been brought in to help solidify the right side, the talent level for Max Allegri has significantly declined from what he had available last season. And against a Milan side that swept their two meetings, that’s not good news.

While they fell 3-2 to Real Madrid on Sunday, AC Milan came out of the gates firing as they put two goals on the board before halftime. A Fikayo Tomori header from a Pulisic corner kick opened the scoring, before new addition Luka Romero doubled their advantage minutes before intermission.

That’s important considering Milan’s lineup from the start was missing the bigger names in the side. Rafael Leao, Theo Hernandez, Mike Maignan, and Olivier Giroud all came into the match with 20 minutes to play. With two matches already under their belts, they’re pulling into form.

Reports from Italy this week have indicated that Pioli plans to name his strongest starting XI, and that’s why I’m taking Milan to lead at halftime. Even with Cuadrado on the right, Juventus would’ve struggled with Hernandez and Leao overlapping and putting pressure on them. Having to try to slow down that attack in your first preseason action is a tough task. 

With Weah possibly playing wingback — or whoever plays on that side with Mattia de Sciglio out injured — the duo should have a strong performance. Look for them to spearhead the Rossoneri attack as usual, and have Milan ahead on the scoreboard when the referee blows play dead after 45 minutes. 

My best bet: AC Milan first half moneyline (+200 at FanDuel)

Juventus vs AC Milan side analysis

I love Milan to win the match as well, especially at a price of +145. They’re slightly favored over Juventus at +155, with the draw pricing out at +230. The first-half win is the better play, but you can’t go wrong with the moneyline either.

Milan are playing their third preseason match, with a 7-0 win over Lumezzane preceding their defeat to Madrid. They’re coming off a Serie A campaign that saw them finish fourth as they were unable to defend their Scudetto. 

Juventus finished seventh in Serie A last season, but would’ve finished fourth and level on points with Inter Milan if not for their points deduction. However, they lost both meetings with Milan a season ago, failing to score a single goal.

Juventus are winless in their last five meetings with AC Milan, and have just one victory in the last nine matches against their bitter rivals. Look for Milan to continue that run of dominance in this friendly. 

Juventus vs AC Milan Over/Under analysis

The total sees the Over priced at -140 and considering Milan’s first two matches this preseason have each seen at least five goals scored, it’s no surprise the public is betting that direction. But wait, matches between these two tend to be low-scoring affairs. 

In the last four meetings between the Old Lady and the Rossoneri, we’ve seen a total of five goals scored with Milan netting four of those. The last 13 meetings have seen the Under go 9-4, as the two clubs tend to be a bit cagey given the importance of the affair.

But this is a preseason friendly, and things won’t exactly be the same. That said, with Maignan in goal and Juventus being without some of their big guns, I think the safer play here might be to take either Juventus Under 0.5 team total, or Over 1.5 goals in the first half. 

The former pays out +270 and the first half Over pays about +160, and both are better value plays than what you’d find on the match total at this point. I’ll be playing Juventus not to score for a unit in this one.  

Juventus vs AC Milan game info

Juventus vs AC Milan key injuries

Juventus: Paul Pogba M (Out), Dusan Vlahovic F (Out), Leonardo Bonucci D (Out) Mattia de Sciglio D (Out).
AC Milan: Ismael Bennacer M (Out).

Juventus vs AC Milan weather

Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures will be on offer for Thursday night’s match in Los Angeles. It’ll be in the upper 70s at kickoff, with light winds and no rain expected in the forecast. 

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