Germany vs Belgium Picks and Predictions: Will German Dominance Continue?

Germany has owned Belgium for years, but there could be a more wide-open style in this friendly, leading to opportunities for both sides to score. That's the best bet in our Germany vs. Belgium betting picks.

Last Updated: Mar 27, 2023 10:47 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Timo Werner Germany soccer
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A pair of central European soccer powers will renew acquaintances on Tuesday when Germany and Belgium square off from Cologne.

For two nations with quite a bit of success over the past decade, this rivalry has been decidedly one-sided. Belgium will hope they can remain unbeaten under new manager Domenico Tedesco, and in the process get the team's first win in 17 matches against Die Mannschaft.

On the other side, the hosts will look quite different than Germany did during their win over Peru last week, but Hansi Flick will still have a strong side at his disposal. His aim will be to guide Germany to its 10th consecutive win over the nation's neighbors.

Will Germany build upon its recent successes under Flick? Or does Belgium finally have an opportunity to get a long-awaited victory? Find out in our Germany vs Belgium free picks and predictions.

Germany vs Belgium best odds

Germany Belgium
-143 Moneyline +425
+240 Draw +240
Over 2.5 (-112) Total Under 2.5 (-112)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on March 28, 2023.

Germany vs Belgium picks and predictions

Belgium will be feeling good about their 3-0 win over Sweden, with the stories of their demise perhaps being a bit premature. Romelu Lukaku put his World Cup nightmare behind him, if only for a night, with a hat trick against the Swedes. But it was nearly a different story early if Dejan Kulusevski’s effort just a quarter of an hour into proceedings wasn’t cleared off the line.

Belgium will likely run many of the same faces out against Germany, but Thibaut Courtois won't be one of them. The goalkeeper has returned home after being released back to Real Madrid, with Koen Casteels likely replacing him. Casteels has just four caps to his name.

One player Casteels won’t need to contend with Kai Havertz. The German forward has been in strong form of late, scoring in three straight matches for Chelsea. However, he was sent home on Sunday due to illness.

Not that Germany will be lacking firepower. Timo Werner and Serge Gnabry will both pose threats, while Leon Goretzka will bring support from the midfield. The Bayern midfielder was rested against Peru, but he's expected to help anchor Flick’s new 4-2-2-2 setup.

Belgium were ruthlessly efficient against Sweden. They managed three goals on just five shots on target, and their 2.52 xG means they simply converted chances most teams would. But that might be all they need to do on Tuesday against a German side that's posted just two clean sheets over its last 12 matches.

They’ll need to put away their chances against top-tier keeper Andre ter Stegen and outstanding back-line talent. Joshua Kimmich also holds down the space in front of them, and he's a key reason Peru failed to manage a single shot on goal in their two efforts.

But Belgium offers much more of a threat than Peru, and players like Leandro Trossard and Kevin de Bruyne will be able to create from the midfield and set up Lukaku with at least a few opportunities. But they’ll be unlikely to stop a German side that's been shut out only once in its last 20 matches.

Players on both sides want to get back to their clubs in good health, and they likely won't be going all-out to defend or prevent chances during a friendly. That’s great for bettors, as it makes it even more likely we'll see goals from both sides. Bet on that and enjoy the attacking talent on display from two teams that don’t know what it means to sit back and defend.

My best bet: Both teams to score (-115 at BetMGM)

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Germany vs Belgium moneyline analysis

Germany has been dominating Belgium in this rivalry, losing just four times in 25 meetings. The last of those defeats came in 1954, when West Germany fell 2-0 in a friendly. Since then, Belgium have managed just one draw across 16 meetings.

However, the last clash between these two teams came 12 years ago, and the two squads are now made up of players who have never faced off with their national sides before. That means trends get thrown out the window.

Neither team fared well at the World Cup, with both crashing out for different reasons. Belgium couldn’t finish their chances, while Germany couldn’t stop giving up opportunities. But only one of the two teams made a managerial change after the tournament, and Belgium looks much better after just one match.

Germany will have the edge here while playing at home, and due to their talent at every level of the pitch. But I’m not sure their 3-way moneyline price of -140 is appropriate following the country's defensive struggles at the World Cup.

Friendlies aren’t necessarily the best reflection of a competitive tie, and Belgium could offer solid value with a new manager to impress while getting plus odds on the double-chance market. Germany’s home-field advantage might push them to a win, but if I had to bet on a result, the draw at +275 would be quite enticing as well.

Germany vs Belgium Over/Under analysis

When you look at this fixture historically, it’s been one-sided in terms of more than just the results. Belgium have managed just two goals in their last five meetings with the Germans, conceding 11 during that span. But again, it’s hard to put weight on results that happened when many of these players were still dreaming of wearing their nation's colors.

At the World Cup and in the matches leading up to it, Germany made a habit of allowing their opponents to score. But they haven’t given up high score lines. Just four of their last 12 matches have featured three-plus goals, though three of those have come in the last five.

Belgium’s inability at times to finish has led to Unders as well. Six of their last 12 matches have gone Under 2.5 goals, including four of the team's last five. Only the Sweden match went past that mark.

The price for both sides of the total reflects the equal chances. Stay away from the total before the match, and then look to get a read on how open the play will be before betting live.

Germany vs Belgium game info

Location: RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, Germany
Date: Tuesday, March 28, 2023
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

Germany vs Belgium key injuries

Germany: Kai Havertz F (Out), Leroy Sane F (Out), Nico Schlotterbeck D (Out). 
Belgium: Thibaut Courtois GK (Out), Jeremy Doku F (Out)

Germany vs Belgium weather

It’ll be a chilly evening in Cologne, with temperatures at kickoff dipping into the low 40s. No rain is expected early, but the odds increase throughout the match. Winds will be minimal and shouldn’t impact play.

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