Cruz Azul vs Inter Miami CF Picks and Predictions: Making Money on Messi Debut

Messi Mania has hit MLS, and the eyes of American soccer fans will be drawn to Miami tonight when Cruz Azul faces Inter Miami in the Leagues Cup.

Inter Miami are being coy with their plans for Lionel Messi’s debut, other than to ensure he will take part in their first ever Leagues Cup match. Their opponents from Liga MX will be hoping to spoil the party, but more importantly will be seeking the first positive result of their new campaign after losing their first three matches. 

With Messi and former Barcelona teammate Sergio Busquets waiting in the wings, Inter Miami are hopeful they’ll get off to a strong start in the competition and pick up their second victory in 11 matches. Find out how they’re likely to fare in our Cruz Azul vs. Inter Miami betting picks and predictions for Friday, July 21.

Cruz Azul vs Inter Miami CF best odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, July 21, 2023.

Cruz Azul vs Inter Miami CF picks and predictions

Before we dive in, a quick note: while Inter Miami are listed as the away side, this is a home match for them as it will be played at DRV PNK Stadium in Miami. It’s important to keep that in mind as you’re looking at betting lines — especially at bet365, who for some reason have Inter Miami listed as the home side and therefore may confuse you with their “home” and “away” prop bets. 

It’s also important because there may not be a more electric atmosphere in American soccer this season, whether for club or country. The hysteria surrounding the arrival of Messi has been unprecedented. Not even the arrival of David Beckham, one of Inter Miami’s owners, caused this kind of a frenzy. 

Messi’s first practice with the team on Tuesday was captured from numerous camera angles and broadcast live on Apple TV. After the practice, manager Tata Martino told ESPN Argentina that both Messi and Busquets will take part in the match, although it’s unlikely they’ll start. 

Whenever they enter, it’ll be for a side struggling of late. Inter Miami have just one victory in their last 10 matches, and lost 3-0 in Tata’s first match in charge away to St Louis City. Thankfully, they’re facing a Cruz Azul side that has been outscored 6-1 in their first three Liga MX outings, and haven’t shown much of a threat themselves this season.

I don’t know when Messi will get on the pitch. It could be at halftime, it could be on 60 minutes. Heck, there’s a slight chance he starts. Martina and company are keeping it close to the vest, and given he’s played only two international friendlies and a testimonial match since the end of May, it makes sense that his fitness could be in question. 

What I do know is that all signs point to him making a cameo in the second half. And with all the hoopla, all the expectations, and a ravenous crowd that will lose their minds when his number comes up on the board from the fourth official…would you want to bet against Miami finding the back of the net down the stretch?

I sure as heck wouldn’t, and I’m not going to; in fact, my best bet is to do the exact opposite. I’m betting there will be a goal scored after the 75th minute, which pays out -105 at DraftKings. If Inter Miami are level or losing, you know that Messi is going to help lead a siege mentality on the Cruz Azul penalty area, one they’ll struggle to withstand. 

Not all books offer this prop, and a few will have variations — for example, bet365 is offering a goal after 73:59 for -120 — but I’d lock this in as soon as you can. The line will likely get juicer as more information is released, so this value may not last. 

My best bet: Goal scored between 76th minute and full time (-105 at DraftKings)

Cruz Azul vs Inter Miami CF side analysis

Given the interest in the match, the 3-way line has been a bit skewed. Inter Miami are even money to win the match, but that’s driven in large part by money coming in with Messi’s name distracting from the struggles they’ve had. Their last win came against a USL side in the US Open Cup seven matches ago, and it’s been 11 straight without a win in league play. Only three of those outings even resulted in a draw.

Cruz Azul hasn’t been any better. Dating back to last season, they’ve won just once in their last eight, and it’s been four straight without a win away from home, including three straight defeats. They’ve conceded two goals in each of their first three matches this season, with just a single goal to their name.

Given we don’t know how long Messi and Busquets will play, I’m not touching the money line and I’d recommend everyone stay away from it pre-match. Wait to see how things play out, and if you can get to the second half with Inter Miami still tied or down a goal, then there would be value on them to win at that point. 

Cruz Azul vs Inter Miami CF Over/Under analysis

The total of 2.5 goals sees things evenly split on either side with neither the Over or Under being preferred by the public. The Over has been the play for Inter Miami matches lately, mostly because their opponents are feasting on their poor defense. They’ve conceded multiple goals in six of their last seven MLS matches, with those six matches all going Over. 

But Cruz Azul’s inability to score this season has kept their totals Under in two of three matches, and it begs the question whether they’d be able to take advantage of Inter’s defensive struggles. Away from home, Cruz Azul have scored just twice in their last four outings dating back to last season. 

Again, there’s too much uncertainty here to play either side right now. Were Messi to play from the start, the Over is obviously the play. But he may only play 15-20 minutes, meaning he wouldn’t impact things until late, and it could easily still be 0-0 at that juncture. I’d wait to see what you can get on the live market if you really want to bet on the total. 

Cruz Azul vs Inter Miami CF game info

Cruz Azul vs Inter Miami CF key injuries

Cruz Azul: Carlos Vargas D (Out), Juan Escobar D (Out).
Inter Miami CF: Lionel Messi F (Probable), Sergio Busquets M (Probable), Corentin Jean F (Out), Franco Negri D (Out). 

Cruz Azul vs Inter Miami CF weather

Miami will be very warm at kickoff, with temperatures in the mid-90s. Winds will be light, and a slight chance of rain will be in the forecast, but the majority of storms should roll out prior to kickoff. Lightning could delay the kickoff, however, with thunderstorms projected around 7 pm. 

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